Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Improved rain for Argentina, heavy rain in southern Brazil, and a return of rain to central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

WARM MIDWEST

Warm temperatures and dry conditions in the Midwest for most of the week should lead to good conditions for the remaining harvest and fieldwork. A front moving through late week could bring some rain to eastern areas while bringing a brief shot of some cooler air as well. A system moving through early next week would be more likely to spread precipitation across the region.

DRY AND WARM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Most of the Central and Southern Plains will stay dry even though a cold front will drop into the region later this week. A system is likely to move out of the Southwest and into the region this weekend, which should bring scattered showers to most areas, aiding winter wheat.

GOOD HARVEST WEATHER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Warmer and drier conditions continue in the Northern Plains for most of the week, favoring the remaining harvest and fieldwork. A system is likely to track to the south this weekend, but could spread precipitation into the region, which may be a wintry mix in some areas.

GOING DRY AGAIN FOR DELTA

Scattered showers fell across southern areas of the Delta this weekend and Monday, but it was much lighter than forecast. A front in the Gulf will keep showers around Tuesday before the region goes dry into the weekend. More rain is needed farther north to keep the Mississippi River from falling back toward the record lows seen in October, which may occur this weekend and early next week with a system moving through.

CHANGES TO BRAZIL'S WEATHER PATTERN

Heavy rain continues over southern Brazil while central Brazil has been very dry with temperatures near or above 100 F. The same pattern continues for the rest of this week, which is unfavorable for most areas. Dryness and heat in the Central will continue to overly stress developing soybeans and cause a need for replanting while wetness across the south will cause flooding and associated issues for developing corn and soybeans. The pattern will start to change this weekend or early next week as a system in the south shifts into central states, spreading typical wet season showers back into the region.

FAVORABLE SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR ARGENTINA

Scattered showers will move through Argentina this week and weekend, bringing decent rainfall to much of the country's growing areas. The country is still recovering from drought and northwestern growing areas are the furthest behind in rainfall, but most areas have seen a positive turnaround in growing conditions in recent weeks.

WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EUROPE

The constant bombardment of an incredibly active pattern across Europe continued over the weekend and won't stop this week either. The pattern may change a bit next week, which would include cooler temperatures as well. If so, that would put some northern areas into dormancy. Most areas are in good shape for soil moisture, with some areas of excess. Smaller areas of limited soil moisture are found in Spain and the far southeast, but that is not a large area of the continent.

WARMTH AND OCCASIONAL RAIN FOR THE BLACK SEA

Areas of showers went through the Black Sea region over the weekend and continue this week as well. Many areas have seen good precipitation over the last few weeks, which has improved conditions for winter wheat establishment. Warm temperatures have allowed much of the region to continue developing roots and extended the season. Some cooler temperatures are forecast this weekend, but crops are likely to stay active for a while yet.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.