Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Improved rain for Argentina, heavy rain in southern Brazil, and heat and dryness in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

WARM AND DRY MIDWEST

Some isolated showers went through northwestern areas of the Midwest over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry while temperatures rose. Warm temperatures and dry conditions for most of the week should lead to good conditions for the remaining harvest and fieldwork. A front moving through late week could bring some rain to some areas, mostly east, while bringing a brief shot of some cooler air as well. But a system moving through this weekend or early next week would be more likely to spread precipitation across the region. A more active and cooler pattern is likely to follow Thanksgiving week.

DRY AND WARM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A streak of showers went through the Central and Southern Plains on Saturday, but most areas were dry this weekend as temperatures rose. Most areas will stay dry, even though a cold front will drop into the region later this week. A system is likely to move out of the Southwest and into the region this weekend, which should bring scattered showers to much of the region, helping winter wheat. A messy and likely active pattern is expected to follow behind it for Thanksgiving week, which could mean a wintry mix of precipitation types depending on the setup. Cooler temperatures are more likely as well, especially farther north.

GOOD HARVEST WEATHER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Warmer and drier conditions in the Northern Plains will continue for most of the week, favoring the remaining harvest and fieldwork. A system is likely to track to the south this weekend, but could spread precipitation into the region, which may be a wintry mix in some areas. Active and cooler weather is likely to continue next week as well.

DECENT RAIN FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN DELTA

Scattered showers fell across the southern Delta this weekend, but it was much lighter than forecast. A front in the Gulf will keep showers around through midweek, which may be heavy farther south in the deeper drought areas. More rain is needed farther north to keep the Mississippi River from falling back toward the record lows seen in October, which may occur this weekend with a system moving through and an active pattern that follows could help as well.

CENTRAL BRAZIL DRY, SOUTHERN BRAZIL WET

Heavy rain fell over southern Brazil this weekend while central Brazil was almost completely dry and temperatures soared above 100F. The same pattern continues this week, which is unfavorable for most areas. Dryness and heat in the central region will continue to overly stress developing soybeans while wetness across the south will cause flooding and associated issues for developing corn and soybeans. The pattern may start to change this weekend as a system in the south shifts into central states.

FAVORABLE SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR ARGENTINA

Scattered showers fell in Argentina over the weekend as a system went through, though some areas in the northwest missed out. Several more systems will move through this week and weekend, making for occasional areas of showers that will move through and bring decent rainfall to much of the country's growing areas. The country is still recovering from drought and those northwestern growing areas are the furthest behind in rainfall, but most areas have seen a positive turnaround in growing conditions in recent weeks.

WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EUROPE

The constant bombardment of an incredibly active pattern across Europe continued over the weekend and won't stop this week either. The pattern may change a bit next week, which would include cooler temperatures as well. If so, that would put some northern areas into dormancy. Most areas are in good shape for soil moisture, with some areas of excess. Smaller areas of limited soil moisture are found in Spain and the far southeast, but that is not a large area of the continent.

WARMTH AND OCCASIONAL RAIN FOR THE BLACK SEA

Areas of showers went through the Black Sea region over the weekend and continue this week as well. Many areas have seen good precipitation over the last few weeks, which has improved conditions for winter wheat establishment. Warm temperatures have allowed much of the region to continue developing roots and extended the season. Some cooler temperatures are forecast this weekend, but crops are likely to stay active for a while yet.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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