Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Improved rain for Argentina, heavy rain in southern Brazil, and dryness in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

NORTHERN MIDWEST CONDITIONS IMPROVING

Heavier mixed precipitation went through Michigan and nearby areas this week, keeping fieldwork slow. Temperatures will be rising this weekend and be well above normal next week while precipitation will be largely absent. A system may bring showers later next week but will probably hold off until the weekend, providing a window for those with fieldwork yet to do.

RAIN CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Areas of rain went through the Southern Plains on Thursday, which continue at times into early next week. Rain will be helpful for winter wheat where it hits. Temperatures will soar well above normal next week, so rain will be important while the crop avoids dormancy. A storm system may move through with more widespread showers next weekend.

HARVEST WEATHER IMPROVING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Warmer and drier conditions are expected in the Northern Plains for the weekend and most of next week, which should create more favorable conditions for fieldwork.

DECENT RAIN FORECAST FOR THE DELTA

A front brought good rain to northern areas of the Delta on Thursday and rain is expected to continue at times into early next week. It will only slightly ease drought but be helpful nonetheless. Water levels on the Lower Mississippi River have seen good rises over the last week but are far from normal flow and will likely fall next week as more rain is needed farther north.

CENTRAL BRAZIL DRY, SOUTHERN BRAZIL WET

Heavy rain is moving back into southern Brazil again after a short dry stretch, which will exacerbate flooding and wetness issues for the remaining wheat harvest as well as corn and soybean planting and development. Central areas are drier. Occasional showers through next week will be well below normal in coverage and intensity, with yet more concerns for the soybean crop where planting is slow. Very hot temperatures will coincide with the dryness as well. Replanting is necessary in some areas missed by recent rain. This may lead to issues with the safrinha crop in early 2024.

FAVORABLE SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR ARGENTINA

Another system will move through Argentina through the weekend and more systems are lining up for next week as well. Rainfall should be beneficial for most areas as the weather continues to take a positive turn for corn and soybeans. The more active pattern is slowing down the maturing and harvest of winter wheat, however.

WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EUROPE

Wave after wave of showers has consistently moved through Europe over the last couple of weeks, largely eliminating any areas of drought outside of the far southeast, but those areas have also had beneficial rainfall as well. Above-normal temperatures have been positive for winter wheat establishment. The same pattern continues through next week.

WARMTH AND OCCASIONAL RAIN FOR THE BLACK SEA

Areas of showers will move across the Black Sea region through next week, which should be beneficial. With temperatures continuing to stay largely above normal, all rainfall will be helpful for winter wheat establishment before the crop goes dormant later this month.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers and areas of heavy rain have fallen in eastern Australia recently as the hot and dry El Nino pattern takes a break. The recent rain is too late for winter wheat and canola and has hampered harvest instead. In contrast, the rain will benefit cotton and sorghum planting and establishment. A weak system will move through western areas this weekend and eastern areas early next week, and more showers are possible later next week, but dryness has been and continues to be unfavorable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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