Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Improved rain for Argentina, heavy rain in southern Brazil, and dryness in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday ahead of the USDA WASDE report.

NORTHERN MIDWEST CONDITIONS IMPROVING

Heavy mixed precipitation went through Michigan and nearby areas Wednesday, which will keep fieldwork slow. A few cooler days are on tap, but temperatures will be rising this weekend and be well-above normal next week while precipitation will largely be absent. A system may bring showers later next week, but will probably hold off until the weekend, providing a window for those with fieldwork yet to do.

RAIN FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front moved through the Central Plains Wednesday but was mostly dry. A disturbance developing along it Thursday will bring showers to the Southern Plains which should be helpful for winter wheat where they hit. There is a chance showers redevelop over Texas early next week, but will be more likely later next week or weekend. Temperatures will briefly fall after the front goes through, but rise well above normal again next week, making moisture important for root development before wheat goes dormant for winter.

HARVEST WEATHER IMPROVING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Light mixed precipitation will continue to bring difficulties in accomplishing the remaining fieldwork over the next few days in the Northern Plains. But warmer and drier conditions are expected for the weekend and most of next week, which should create more favorable conditions.

DECENT RAIN FORECAST FOR THE DELTA

A front will bring scattered showers to the Delta through the weekend, possibly stalling and bringing more early next week as well. The rain will only slightly ease drought but will be welcome. Water levels on the Lower Mississippi River have seen good rises over the last week but are far from normal flow.

CENTRAL BRAZIL DRY, SOUTHERN BRAZIL WET AGAIN

Heavy rain is moving back into southern Brazil again after a short dry stretch, which will exacerbate flooding and wetness issues for the remaining wheat harvest as well as corn and soybean planting and development. Central areas are drier. Occasional showers through next week will be well-below normal in coverage and intensity, with yet more concerns for the soybean crop where planting is slow. Dryness is also necessitating replanting in some areas that have been missed by recent rain. This may lead to issues with the safrinha crop in early 2024.

FAVORABLE SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR ARGENTINA

A system brought showers to Argentina earlier this week, while another system will move through Friday through the weekend and more systems are lining up for next week as well. Rainfall should be beneficial for most areas as the weather situation continues to take a positive turn for corn and soybeans. The more active pattern may slow maturing and harvest of winter wheat, however.

WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EUROPE

Wave after wave of showers have consistently moved through Europe over the last couple of weeks, which has largely eliminated any areas of drought outside of the far southeast, but those areas have also had beneficial rainfall. Above-normal temperatures have been positive for winter wheat establishment. The same pattern continues through next week.

WARMTH AND OCCASIONAL RAIN FOR THE BLACK SEA

Areas of showers will move across the Black Sea region through next week, which should be beneficial. With temperatures continuing to stay largely above normal, all rainfall will be helpful for winter wheat establishment before the crop goes dormant later this month.

SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers and areas of heavy rain continue in eastern Australia Thursday as the hot-and-dry El Nino pattern takes a break. The recent rain is too late for winter wheat and canola and will hamper harvest. In contrast, the rain will benefit cotton and sorghum planting and establishment. A weak system will move through western areas this weekend and eastern areas early next week, but dryness has been and continues to be unfavorable for all crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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