Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Up-and-down temperatures and occasional precipitation in the U.S., improved rain for Argentina, heavy rain returning to southern Brazil, and dryness in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

VARIABLE TEMPERATURES, PRECIPITATION FOR MIDWEST

Isolated light showers moved through the Midwest this weekend until a system moved through northern areas Sunday night. It will continue to bring light to moderate rain across Wisconsin and Michigan on Monday, slowing progress for fieldwork. Temperatures have risen and will be warm this week until another front moves through Wednesday and Thursday. That front will bring some showers through the region and put temperatures back down to normal but any chilly air will not last long with warmer temperatures building again next week. The up-and-down temperature pattern and occasional precipitation will make the remaining fieldwork difficult in some cases, especially across the north, but could help with water levels on the Mississippi River.

RAIN COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some showers went through Nebraska this weekend, but most of the Central and Southern Plains stayed dry. A front will move through the region this week but be mostly dry until Thursday when a disturbance develops, bringing showers to southern areas which should help winter wheat where they hit. Temperatures will be mostly near or above normal for the next couple of weeks, making moisture important for root development before it goes dormant for winter.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers fell over the Northern Plains this weekend, being very light and mostly rain. Temperatures rose significantly and melted a lot of the snowpack in the region, though some remain over northeast North Dakota, where remaining fieldwork will be slow. A few disturbances will move through this week with mixed precipitation and continued difficulties in accomplishing the remaining fieldwork.

SHOWERS FORECAST FOR THE DELTA

It was dry in the Delta over the weekend. A front will come through late this week with scattered showers. It will only slightly ease drought but precipitation farther north could continue to aid water levels on the Lower Mississippi River, which has seen good rises over the last week but far from normal flow. Drought continues to be a heavy influence as well.

CENTRAL BRAZIL DRIER AGAIN

Southern Brazil finally got a break from the heavy rain this weekend, but it will not last as another system moves in later this week and weekend with the potential for more heavy rain. Central areas got a nice boost in precipitation over the weekend, but that will move north for most of this week. Occasional showers throughout the weekend will be below normal in coverage and intensity, causing a return to more concern for the soybean crop. Soybean planting continues to be slow in central Brazil as the dryness has forced producers to wait for good soil moisture. This may lead to issues with the safrinha crop later this season. Flooding across the south has also produced issues for pulling wheat out and planting and developing corn and soybeans.

SHOWERS RETURN TO ARGENTINA

It was dry in Argentina over the weekend after a week of good rain there. One system will move through with scattered showers on Tuesday and Wednesday, while another system will move through Friday through this weekend. Rainfall should be beneficial for most areas as the weather continues to take a positive turn for the country.

MORE WAVES OF SHOWERS FOR EUROPE

Wave after wave of showers have moved through Europe over the last few weeks, which has largely eliminated any areas of drought outside of the far southeast, but those areas have also had some beneficial rainfall as well. Above-normal temperatures have also been positive for winter wheat establishment. The same pattern continues all this week and probably next week as well.

WARMTH AND OCCASIONAL RAIN FOR THE BLACK SEA

Scattered showers went through the Black Sea region this weekend. Areas of showers will move through this week, which should be beneficial. With temperatures continuing to stay above normal, all rainfall will be helpful for winter wheat establishment before the crop goes dormant later this month.

SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers developed in eastern Australia over the weekend, producing some areas of heavy rain. Scattered showers continue here for most of the week as the hot and dry El Nino pattern takes a break. The rain is too late for winter wheat and canola and will hamper harvest instead. In contrast, the rain will benefit cotton and sorghum planting and establishment. Dryness elsewhere is unfavorable for all crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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