Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Up-and-down temperatures and occasional precipitation in the U.S., improved rain for Argentina and central Brazil, and heavy rain returning to southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR MIDWEST

Recent good rainfall has helped to reduce drought in the Midwest but is delaying the remaining fieldwork. Cold temperatures from earlier this week will moderate through the weekend and be above normal early next week. However, the pattern will stay active with additional showers possible this weekend and next week at times, followed by some cooler air for later next week, which will likely be brief.

TEMPERATURES RISING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures will continue to moderate from the cold earlier this week in the Central and Southern Plains, but frosts will be more common across the north going forward. Some rain may go through northern areas Friday and Saturday, but most of the region will be dry until mid-next week when a better chance for showers moves through with a potential storm system. Temperatures should fall after it passes.

LINGERING COLD, OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Heavy snow that fell across the far Northern Plains last week continues to be slow to melt and keep temperatures low. The pattern will stay fairly active with occasional periods of showers, including some snow, through the middle of next week. The colder and wetter conditions will continue to make the remaining fieldwork difficult to accomplish.

DRY IN THE DELTA

Recent rain has helped with water levels on the Mississippi River but has not helped with drought in the Delta. Temperatures will continue to rise over the weekend. The chance for precipitation increases again next week as a system or two moves through, but the forecast is for lighter precipitation at this time.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN BRAZIL

One last system is moving through southern Brazil Friday, which has seen heavy rain this week and continued problems with flooding and developing corn and soybeans as well as damaging remaining wheat in the field. Southern areas will catch a dry spell this weekend into early next week, but it will be short with more heavy rain moving through mid-late next week. Central areas will see improved precipitation through the middle of next week which will help with soybean planting and establishment in most areas. Precipitation is still below normal in this area, however.

SHOWERS RETURN TO ARGENTINA NEXT WEEK

Scattered showers and areas of heavier rain moved through Argentina this week, favorable for immature wheat and developing corn, as well as additional planting of corn and soybeans. After a break this weekend, showers should move through with another system next week to continue to improve growing conditions in the country.

WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EUROPE

Wave after wave of precipitation continues to move through Europe through next week, keeping soil moisture high for winter wheat establishment, but making fieldwork difficult. Temperatures will largely stay above normal for most of the continent, with cooler temperatures moving into the west briefly next week. Rain and mild temperatures will keep winter wheat from going dormant.

WARMTH AND OCCASIONAL RAIN FOR THE BLACK SEA

Active weather in Europe will make for occasional precipitation in the Black Sea region for the next couple of weeks, which may help to keep enough soil moisture around for wheat to develop before going dormant later this month. Warm temperatures over the next couple of weeks will promote growth as well as delay dormancy.

SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers will develop over eastern areas through next week as the El Nino pattern takes a break and gives these areas potential for decent rainfall, but precipitation deficits remain large. Dryness elsewhere is unfavorable for immature wheat and canola as well as cotton and sorghum planting and establishment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.