Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Up-and-down temperatures and uncertainty in the forecast for the U.S., improved rain for Argentina and central Brazil, and heavy rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

VARIABLE TEMPERATURES, PRECIPITATION FOR MIDWEST

Recent good rainfall has eased drought on a widespread basis in the Midwest but is delaying remaining fieldwork. Cold temperatures will moderate for the end of the week and above-normal temperatures are likely for the weekend into early next week. But the pattern will stay active with additional showers possible this weekend and next week at times, followed by some cooler air.

TEMPERATURES RISING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Cold temperatures have been in place across the Central and Southern Plains the last several mornings, making for widespread frosts and freezes, slowing growth for winter wheat. Temperatures will continue to rise, but frosts will be more common across the north going forward. Some rain may go through northern areas Friday and Saturday, and again early next week, but most of the region will be dry until the middle of next week, when a better chance for widespread showers moves through with a potential storm system.

LINGERING COLD, OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Heavy snow that fell across the Northern Plains last week continues to be slow to melt and is keeping temperatures low. The pattern will stay fairly active with occasional periods of showers, including some snow, through next week. The colder and wetter conditions will continue to make remaining fieldwork difficult to accomplish.

FROSTS AND FREEZES FOR DELTA

Recent rain in the northern Delta and farther north and west has helped with water levels on the Mississippi River. Cold air will produce another morning of frost Friday before temperatures moderate and go above normal. The chance for precipitation increases next week as a system or two moves through with some showers and more falling temperatures.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN BRAZIL

Several systems moving through southern Brazil this week have been producing heavy precipitation, which creates problems with flooding and developing corn and soybeans as well as damaging remaining wheat. Southern areas will catch a dry spell this weekend into early next week, but it will be short with more showers moving through mid- to late-next week. Central areas will see improved precipitation for the next week, which will help with soybean planting and establishment in most areas, as well as keep temperatures from getting too hot.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Scattered showers continue in Argentina on Thursday, which has been very favorable for remaining filling winter wheat and developing corn as well as producing better soil moisture for early soybean planting. However, colder temperatures have also been a factor, which produced some limited frosts over southern areas this week and slowed growth. After a break in the rain this weekend, showers should move through with another system next week.

WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EUROPE

Wave after wave of precipitation will continue to move through Europe through next week, keeping soil moisture high for winter wheat establishment, but making fieldwork difficult. Temperatures will largely stay above normal for most of the continent this week, with cooler temperatures moving into the west next week. Rain and mild temperatures will keep winter wheat from going dormant.

WARMTH AND OCCASIONAL RAIN FOR THE BLACK SEA

Active weather in Europe will make for occasional precipitation in the Black Sea region for the next couple of weeks, which may help keep enough soil moisture around for wheat to develop before going dormant later this month. Warm temperatures over the next couple of weeks will promote growth as well as delay dormancy.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY DRY

Some showers will develop over eastern Australia Friday through next week as the pattern gives these areas potential for some scattered showers, but precipitation deficits remain large. Dryness elsewhere is unfavorable for immature wheat and canola as well as cotton and sorghum planting and establishment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.