Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain, snow, and falling temperatures forecast for the Central U.S. and increasing rain for Argentina and central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN, THEN COLD FOR MIDWEST

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move through the Midwest going into early next week as a front drapes across the region and several storm systems move along it. Temperatures may waffle in the middle of the region, but eventually, the cold air will win out, spreading through the region early next week. That may cause some areas of snow, especially with cold air moving over the warm Great Lakes, inducing some lake-effect snow. The cold may be brief, with moderating temperatures by later next week. Rain will cause issues with remaining fieldwork.

MORE RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Including some heavy rain from Monday, rounds of heavy precipitation will move through the region through early next week. Far western areas may not see all that much, however, which will only slightly benefit soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. From Texas to eastern Kansas, heavy rain will help with drought but may cause flooding. Cold air will gradually fill in through the region, which will eventually cause widespread frosts and freezes as well as turn some precipitation over to snow. Accumulations will be possible, mostly in parts of Nebraska and northeast Colorado this weekend. The cold shot will likely be somewhat brief, with temperatures moderating by late next week.

ACCUMULATING SNOW, COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Periods of rain and snow, which may be heavy at times, continue for the Northern Plains into the weekend. Temperatures are plummeting behind a cold front, which will last into next week, and be harsher over the heavier snow cover in Montana and North Dakota. The heavy precipitation and snow accumulation will make fieldwork very difficult to accomplish and may lead to quality concerns for corn left out in the field.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

It is an active week of weather off to the west and north of the Delta, which may include northern parts of the region at times with periods of showers and thunderstorms. A front will eventually come through this weekend and early next week with showers. But the forecast is for lighter amounts as drought continues to build in the region. Water levels on the Mississippi River may have some help with the rainfall that comes through this week, but more is needed to significantly improve conditions on the river.

INCREASING RAIN FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Southern Brazil is getting a brief break in the heavy rain, but more is forecast for the weekend. Showers have moved north into central Brazil, which has been much drier than normal in most spots for the last several weeks. Not all areas are going to benefit, as trends for the state of Mato Grosso have been for lower amounts. The increased rainfall will bring better conditions for planting and early growth for soybeans in central areas but continues to cause concerns for wheat quality and harvest in the south, as well as planting for corn and soybeans.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Areas of rain that went through Argentina over the weekend continued Monday, helping to reverse some of the dryness that has been concerning for filling winter wheat and corn planting. The country will be in a more active pattern for the next couple of weeks, with more areas of showers moving through. It may not be all that widespread and heavy which would be preferred, but it is a better turnaround than the very dry conditions seen over the last few months.

SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A system in the eastern Atlantic is sending several pieces of energy through Europe this week with widespread areas of showers, favorable for winter wheat and other grain establishments. Showers are likely to continue in bursts next week as well. Temperatures remain above normal, drastically so in the east, which will keep winter grains from going dormant.

RAIN CHANCES FOR THE BLACK SEA

Waves of rain will move across Ukraine and southern Russia through the weekend, helping to improve soil moisture in most areas, though not all will be so lucky. Lighter showers may continue next week. With temperatures remaining above normal through next week, winter wheat and other grains will get a chance to use the moisture prior to the winter freeze.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY DRY

A cold front moving through southeast Australia brought light showers to the area over the last couple of days. As the front works northward, it may produce showers needed for coastal areas, but inland areas are likely to stay dry. Overall, conditions continue to be unfavorable for filling wheat and canola, but better for early harvest of a drought-reduced crop. Conditions for cotton and sorghum are also unfavorable in the dry soils. Very little precipitation is forecast for the next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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