Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain, snow, and falling temperatures forecast for the Central U.S., and increasing rain for Argentina and central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN, THEN COLD FOR MIDWEST

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move through the Midwest going into early next week as a front drapes across the region and several storm systems move along it. Temperatures may waffle around in the middle of the region, but eventually the cold air will win out, spreading through the region early next week. That may cause some areas of snow, especially with cold air moving over the warm Great Lakes, inducing some lake-effect snow. The cold may be brief, with moderating temperatures by later next week. Rain will cause issues with remaining fieldwork.

HEAVY RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Rounds of heavy precipitation will move through the Central and Southern Plains through early next week. Far western areas may not see all that much, however, which will only slightly benefit soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. From Texas to eastern Kansas, heavy rain will help with drought, but may cause flooding. Cold air will gradually fill in through the region, which will eventually cause widespread frosts and freezes as well as turn some precipitation over to snow. Accumulations will be possible, mostly in parts of Nebraska and northeast Colorado this weekend. The cold shot will likely be somewhat brief, with temperatures moderating by the middle of next week.

ACCUMULATING SNOW, COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Mostly dry conditions and above-normal temperatures extended across the Northern Plains this weekend, benefiting fieldwork progress. Active weather returns through much of this week with periods of rain showers and snow, which may be heavy at times through the weekend. Temperatures are plummeting behind a cold front, which will last into next week. The heavy precipitation and snow accumulation will make fieldwork very difficult and may lead to quality concerns for corn remaining in the field.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

It will be an active week of weather off to the west and north, which may include northern parts of the Delta at times with periods of showers and thunderstorms. A front will eventually come through this weekend and early next week with showers. But the forecast is for lighter amounts as drought continues to build in the region. Water levels on the Mississippi River may have some help with the rainfall that comes through this week, but more is needed to significantly improve conditions on the river.

INCREASING RAIN FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Areas of heavy rain continue over southern Brazil with several systems moving through over the next week. They will also increase precipitation over central Brazil, which has been much drier than normal in most spots for the last several weeks. The increased rainfall will bring better conditions for planting and early growth for soybeans in central areas but continues to cause concerns for wheat quality and harvest in the south, as well as planting for corn and soybeans.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Areas of rain that went through Argentina over the weekend continued Monday, helping to reverse some of the dryness that has been concerning for winter wheat and corn planting. The country will be in a more active pattern for the next couple of weeks, with more areas of showers moving through. It may not be all that widespread heavy, which would be preferred, but it is a better turnaround than the very dry conditions seen over the last few months.

SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A series of systems from the eastern Atlantic moved across Europe last week, providing scattered showers. This was favorable for winter wheat and other grain establishment where soil moisture had been dropping in recent weeks. Additional systems will work from west to east across the continent this week, which will provide even more scattered rain showers. Above- to well-above-normal temperatures will dominate eastern areas this week.

RAIN CHANCES IMPROVING FOR THE BLACK SEA

Northern areas of the Black Sea region saw some light to moderate rain showers this weekend, which likely improved soil moisture. Periods of rain will move across Ukraine and southern Russia again this week. Given the more active weather pattern, the outlook for soil moisture prior to the winter freeze is improving.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY DRY

Conditions are still looking unfavorable for filling wheat and canola in Australia. A few light showers tagged the southeast this weekend, but the showers didn't offer much for soil moisture improvement. Early cotton and sorghum planting is finding rather dry conditions as well. A cold front could tag southeastern areas Tuesday and Wednesday, but rainfall amounts will likely remain light. As the front works northward, it may produce needed showers for coastal areas, but inland areas are likely to stay dry.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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