Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain from last week with more showers on the way in the U.S., dryness in Argentina and central Brazil and heavy rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

A system brought widespread rainfall to the Midwest over the weekend, including heavy rainfall over the northern half of the region. That will help to reduce drought but will also delay fieldwork. Another system moves through later this week with widespread showers, though they are forecast to be lighter. Another system will move through next week, making it more difficult to complete fieldwork in some areas. Winter wheat will benefit from increased soil moisture in some areas.

DRIER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heavy rain in Nebraska last week will delay field work for some time but help to reduce drought. Southwestern areas were missed by the system but still have decent soil moisture in most areas, though that is waning for wheat establishment. Frosts occurred in western areas over the weekend all the way to the Texas Panhandle and continue early this week. A system will largely miss the north this week, but better rainfall is possible next week with a system moving through.

MORE SHOWERS COMING TO NORTHERN PLAINS

Showers exited the Northern Plains over the weekend but left behind some hefty amounts that will lead to some delays in harvest and fieldwork. Another system will move through Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered light showers and more rain is forecast for early next week. It may become more difficult to get fall fieldwork done in a timely manner in such an active pattern.

DRY IN THE DELTA

A front went through the Delta on Friday but was largely dry. A system will pass by to the north later this week and should remain dry. Drought continues to build in the region and is severe across the southern half, even though it got some rain earlier last week. Conditions are favorable for harvest but not for rebuilding soil moisture.

YET MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Scattered showers fell in central Brazil over the weekend, more like we would expect during the wet season. However, showers this week are forecast to be light in these areas, disrupted by fronts that continue to bring in more stable air behind them. They have been more likely to produce heavier rain for southern Brazil, which has dealt with flooding and wetness issues for filling and harvest of winter wheat, as well as corn and soybean planting, though the latter issues have not been as severe as expected due to the wetness. Producers are finding a way. They'll need to find more ways this week as heavy rain falls again for much of the week.

SHOWERS LIMITED FOR ARGENTINA UNTIL WEEKEND

It was dry in Argentina over the weekend, a pattern that has been unfavorable for filling winter wheat and corn planting for the last couple of months. Northern areas should see some rainfall early this week with a front coming through, but the main growing area in the central is not expected to see much. Forecasts for a system this weekend into early next week are much more favorable.

SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

Scattered showers went through Europe over the weekend but were light in most places. A couple of systems moving through the continent over the next few weeks will bring widespread showers to western and southern areas, favorable for winter wheat and other grain establishment where soil moisture had been falling in recent weeks.

SHOWER CHANCES IMPROVING FOR THE BLACK SEA

Light showers went through the Black Sea region over the weekend. A better front started to move in on Sunday and will continue across Ukraine with decent rainfall through Monday, but showers will be less impressive over southwestern Russia, where soil moisture is the lowest at the moment. There is some potential for better rainfall late week and weekend with a system moving across the north. More showers may be possible next week as well. The outlook for soil moisture prior to the winter freeze is improving.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY DRY

A front brought showers again to southeastern Australia this weekend, but other areas were left dry. Dry weather is forecast for this week, unfavorable for filling wheat and canola. The pattern does look more active this weekend into next week, which may be of some help, but the forecast for rainfall is still for low amounts. Early cotton and sorghum planting is finding rather dry conditions.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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