Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong storm moving through the U.S. with heavy rain and strong winds, dryness in Argentina, and heavy rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

HEAVY RAIN FOR MIDWEST

A system continues to spread showers across the Midwest through the weekend. Areas of heavy rain will help with the ongoing drought, but interrupt harvest. Breezy winds continue across the west for Friday. Another system will move through mid-late next week with potential for scattered showers.

STRONG WINDS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A strong system is pulling away, but brought heavy rain to parts of Nebraska, stalling harvest and other fieldwork. Winds have increased behind the system and will be strong for the rest of today, diminishing tonight. Another storm system will move through in the middle of next week and may bring some showers through, but southwestern areas have seen decreasing soil moisture lately and would enjoy more rain for winter wheat establishment.

MORE SHOWERS COMING TO NORTHERN PLAINS

A system passing by to the south brought heavy rain to Wyoming and South Dakota and continues in the southeast on Friday as it pulls away. Some snow also fell across portions of Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota. Winds are breezy for today on the backside of the system. Another system will move through in the middle of next week and may bring scattered showers.

DRY IN THE DELTA

A system brought some heavier rain to far southern areas of the Delta on Wednesday. A cold front will move on Friday but is forecast to be largely dry. Drought continues to build in the region, which is favorable for harvest, but not for rebuilding soil moisture. Cold temperatures that move in behind the front may bring patchy frosts next week to northern areas.

YET MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, though coverage and amounts of rainfall continue to be below-normal. A front brought heavy rain to southern areas this week. Another front will bring bouts of rain for southern areas Sunday through a good portion of next week. Heavy rain and flooding have caused concerns with winter wheat quality and harvest and corn and soybean planting, though the pace for planting has been near normal. While it is drier than normal in central Brazil, showers are still passing through and southern areas have more than enough soil moisture for early establishment.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

A front moved through Argentina with showers this week, but they were light and scattered, not nearly enough for filling wheat or corn establishment. Soils continue to be very dry and are in need of more rain. Showers may try to develop in spots this weekend and early next week with a weak disturbance moving through, but widespread rain is not forecast. Cold temperatures this weekend and early next week may produce localized frosts in some southern areas, unfavorable for filing wheat and emergent corn.

SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN EUROPE

Soil moisture has been falling in southern and western Europe the last couple of weeks, unfavorable for winter wheat establishment. A front and system continue to move across the continent this weekend with more widespread showers. A couple of storm systems will follow into the Mediterranean Sea next week, which would be more beneficial if they occur and bring the forecast rains.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE BLACK SEA

Isolated showers have moved through the Black Sea region at times this week, but most areas stayed dry. A front that moves through early next week may bring better showers to portions of Ukraine, but southwestern Russia needs more rain for winter wheat establishment.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY DRY

A front brought showers again to southeastern Australia this week, but only to limited areas. The southeast may continue to be clipped by fronts where decent showers develop into early next week. Western and northeastern areas are still lacking adequate soil moisture for filling wheat and canola. Soil moisture is unfavorable for any early summer cotton and sorghum planting as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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