Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong storm moving through the U.S. with heavy rain and strong winds, dryness in Argentina, and heavy rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

HEAVY RAIN FOR MIDWEST

A system will spread showers across the Midwest through the weekend. Areas of heavy rain will be possible, which will help with the ongoing drought, but interrupt harvest. Winds will also be strong behind the system, particularly for the west. Another system will move through mid- to late-next week with potential for scattered showers.

RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A potent system will cross the Central Plains with widespread showers and thunderstorms and strong winds through Friday. Some accumulating snow may be possible in the northwest as well. Areas of heavy rain are expected for Nebraska, which will delay harvest. Light rain elsewhere will favor winter wheat establishment where it occurs, though strong winds would not be favorable, drying out soils. Cold temperatures that follow the system could produce frosts as far south as the Texas Panhandle going into next week. Another system will cross the region in the middle of next week, which may bring some showers.

SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system will pass by to the south, but is close enough to produce precipitation in the Northern Plains through Friday, which may be heavy in parts of Wyoming and South Dakota. It is not out of the question for some snow to mix in over Wyoming or southwestern South Dakota as well. Strong winds will also be a concern. Another system will move through in the middle of next week with more showers.

DRY IN THE DELTA

A system moving through the Gulf of Mexico brought some heavier rain to far southern areas Wednesday. A cold front will move on Friday but is forecast to be largely dry. Drought continues to build in the region, which is favorable for harvest, but not for rebuilding soil moisture. Cold temperatures that move in behind the front may bring patchy frosts next week to northern areas.

MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, though coverage and amounts of rainfall continue to be below normal. A front is bringing heavy rain to southern areas Thursday. Heavy rain and flooding have caused concerns with winter wheat quality and harvest and corn and soybean planting, though the pace for planting has been near normal. While it is drier than normal in central Brazil, showers are still passing through and southern areas have more than enough soil moisture for early establishment.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

A front moved through Argentina with showers this week, but they were light and scattered, not nearly enough for filling wheat or corn establishment. Soils continue to be very dry and need more rain. Showers may try to develop in spots this weekend and next week with a couple of weak disturbances moving through, but widespread rain is not forecast. Cold temperatures this weekend and early next week may produce localized frosts in some southern areas, unfavorable for filing wheat and emergent corn.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN COMING FOR EUROPE

Soil moisture has been falling in southern and western Europe the last couple of weeks, unfavorable for winter wheat establishment. A front and system move through late week and weekend with more widespread showers. A couple of storm systems will follow into the Mediterranean Sea next week, which would be more beneficial if they occur and bring the forecast rains.

RECENT GOOD RAIN IN THE BLACK SEA

There was a zone from eastern Ukraine through southern Russia that saw heavy rain over the weekend, favorable for reversing drying soils in this part of the region. Other areas still are dry, though. Isolated showers may move through at times this week, but most areas are staying dry. Those that did not see the heavy rain over the weekend will see worsening conditions for winter wheat establishment. A front that moves through early next week may bring better showers to portions of the region.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY DRY

A front brought showers again to southeastern Australia this week, but only to limited areas. The southeast may continue to be clipped by fronts where decent showers develop over the next week. Western and northeastern areas are still lacking adequate soil moisture for filling wheat and canola. Soil moisture is unfavorable for any early summer cotton and sorghum planting as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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