Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong storm moving through the U.S. with heavy rain and strong winds, dryness in Argentina, and heavy rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

HEAVY RAIN FOR MIDWEST

A system will move into the Plains on Wednesday and spread showers across the Midwest through the weekend. Areas of heavy rain will be possible, which will help with the ongoing drought, but could interrupt harvest. Winds may also be strong behind the system, particularly for the west.

RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A potent system will cross the Central and Southern Plains with showers, thunderstorms and strong winds through Friday. Some accumulating snow may be possible in the northwest as well. Areas of heavy rain are expected for parts of Nebraska, which would delay harvest. Light rain elsewhere will favor winter wheat establishment where it occurs, though strong winds would not be favorable, drying out soils.

SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system will pass by to the south but will still be close enough to produce precipitation in the Northern Plains, which may be heavy in Wyoming and South Dakota through Friday. It is not out of the question for some snow to mix in over Wyoming or maybe southwestern South Dakota as well. Strong winds will also be a concern. Another system will move through in the middle of next week with more showers.

DRY IN THE DELTA

A system moving through the Gulf of Mexico is bringing some light rain to far southern areas of the Delta Wednesday. A cold front will move on Friday, but is forecast to be largely dry. Drought continues to build in the region, which is favorable for harvest, but not for rebuilding soil moisture.

MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, though they may be isolated at times. A front will bring chances for heavy rain to southern areas again Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rain and flooding have caused concerns with winter wheat quality and harvest and corn and soybean planting, though the pace for planting has been near normal. While it is drier than normal in central Brazil, showers are still passing through and southern areas have more than enough soil moisture for early establishment.

LIMITED SHOWERS AND FROST FOR ARGENTINA

A front is moving through Argentina on Wednesday with showers, but they are light and scattered, not nearly enough for filling wheat or for corn establishment. Cold temperatures filling in behind the front will lead to areas of frost. Soils continue to be very dry and are in need of more rain. Showers may try to develop in spots this weekend and next week with a couple of weak disturbances moving through, but widespread rain is not forecast.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN COMING FOR EUROPE

Soil moisture has been falling in southern and western Europe the last couple of weeks, unfavorable for winter wheat establishment. A front and system move through late week and weekend with more widespread showers. A couple of storm systems may follow into the Mediterranean Sea next week, which would be more beneficial if they occur and bring the forecast rains.

RECENT GOOD RAIN IN THE BLACK SEA

There was a zone from eastern Ukraine through southern Russia that saw heavy rain over the weekend, favorable for reversing drying soils in this part of the region. Other areas still are dry, though. Isolated showers may move through at times this week, but most areas are staying dry. Those areas that did not see the heavy rain over the weekend will see worsening conditions for winter wheat establishment. Colder air in the region early this week produced frosts, slowing growth for winter wheat.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY DRY

A front moving through will bring showers again to southeastern Australia today and tomorrow. Western and northeastern areas are still lacking adequate soil moisture for filling wheat and canola. Soil moisture is unfavorable for any early summer cotton and sorghum planting as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.