Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A risk of widespread frost in the Corn Belt, dryness in Argentina and heavy rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

RISK OF FROST FOR MIDWEST

Some heavier rain fell Thursday in central and eastern Midwest, which may delay harvest a touch. A second front will move through over the next couple of days with more isolated showers and much colder air. Temperatures will fall dramatically and there is potential for frost this weekend, especially across the north. Some isolated showers may continue into the weekend and possibly early next week in the cooler air over the Great Lakes. Another storm system will move through late next week with potential for more widespread rainfall.

SHOT OF COLD FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Colder temperatures are filing into the Central and Southern Plains and should produce some frosts and potential freezes through Sunday morning across northern areas. Additional patchy frost may be possible in some northern locales early next week, but temperatures will moderate. Recent precipitation has improved soil moisture for winter wheat establishment but may have had a small delaying effect on harvest. The next system will move through in the middle of next week with scattered showers.

FROSTS AND FREEZES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air will produce a few showers in the east on Friday. Widespread frosts and freezes are expected Saturday and patchy frost may continue into next week. That could put an end to any immature crops. Recent showers will cause some delays to harvest, but the dryness that follows should allow equipment back out into the fields. Some showers may return in the middle of next week as a system passes by to the south.

DRY AGAIN IN THE DELTA

A front moved through on Thursday with widespread rain in the Delta, but it was mostly light. Drought continues to build in the area, but conditions are good for harvest. A system will move through later next week which may bring more showers.

MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, though they may be isolated at times. A front will continue over southern areas through the weekend with bouts of heavy rain. Southern areas are dealing with too much rainfall, which has caused flooding and the need to replant early corn in some instances. Other than those issues, increased rainfall is favorable for early establishment. Even the below-normal rainfall in central Brazil should be sufficient for continued planting and establishment.

DRY CONCERNS CONTINUE IN ARGENTINA

It continues to be dry in Argentina. While planting conditions are good for corn, establishment conditions are not, and filling wheat needs rain as well. The dry weather forecast to follow through early next week is not favorable either. The next system is forecast to move through in the middle of next week, but forecasts are not favoring the widespread heavy rain that is needed just yet.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN, EASTERN EUROPE

Rounds of isolated showers will move through northern and eastern Europe through early next week. Otherwise, drier and warmer weather should be expected -- favorable for fieldwork but decreasing soil moisture on the continent for winter wheat establishment. The forecast brings in more widespread showers but not until the end of next week or the weekend.

FINALLY SOME SHOWERS FOR THE BLACK SEA

A couple of systems will move through the Black Sea region early next week. Mostly light rain is forecast, but there could be some enhancement in some key areas this weekend. Soil moisture continues to fall in winter wheat areas, and the rain is sorely needed before dormancy sets in. The region typically has the month of October for establishment before winter freezes in November from north to south.

AUSTRALIA DRY AGAIN

A stronger cold front brought significant rainfall to southeastern Australia and a burst of colder air that should ease stress from recent heat this week. Other areas did not have much precipitation out of the system, and largely dry soils are still largely unfavorable for filling winter wheat and canola. Mostly dry weather continues for the next week with a return of heat in the west.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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