Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Up-and-down temperatures in the U.S., including a risk of frost, and heavy rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

RISK OF FROST FOR MIDWEST

A front will move through the Midwest Tuesday night through Friday with widespread showers. Temperatures will fall dramatically behind the front and there is potential for frost this weekend, especially across the north. Some isolated showers may continue into the weekend in the cooler air over the Great Lakes. Dryness and warmth should return next week. Any fieldwork delays due to rainfall are likely to be short.

RAIN, THEN SHOT OF COLD FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front will push through the Central and Southern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms and the potential for severe weather and heavy rain. Afterward, cooler temperatures will move in, potentially producing some frosts late week and weekend across northern areas. The cold will be temporary as temperatures rise next week. Drier weather that follows should allow equipment to move back into the region rather quickly. Soil moisture increases for winter wheat establishment should be favorable as well.

FROSTS LIKELY FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers continue in the Northern Plains on Tuesday as a system moves through. Much colder air will move in behind the system and may bring a few showers. Frost will be possible late week and weekend that could put an end to any immature crops. The cold will only be temporary as a ridge brings in more warmth next week. Showers will cause some delays to harvest this week but the dryness that follows should allow equipment to roll shortly.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

It was dry in the Delta over the weekend, allowing for rapid harvest in the dry soils. A front will move through Thursday and Friday but showers are forecast to be limited. Drought continues to build in the area.

MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, though they may be isolated at times. A front will move into southern areas on Tuesday night and bring areas of heavy rain. That front will move into central areas late in the week, enhancing showers there. Another burst of rain is forecast for southern Brazil this weekend, which may be heavy yet again. Southern areas are dealing with too much rainfall, which has caused flooding and the need to replant early corn in some instances. Other than those issues, increased rainfall is favorable for early establishment.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

It was dry in Argentina over the weekend and the region needs more rainfall. A front is moving through on Tuesday, but showers are widely scattered and will miss some of the important cropland that is in need. While planting conditions are good, establishment conditions are not. The dry forecast to follow for the next week is not favorable either. The next system is forecast to move through in the middle of next week.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN EUROPE

Some showers went through northern Europe over the weekend. More isolated showers are forecast early this week across the north, then over the northeast later this week and weekend. Otherwise, drier and warmer weather should be expected, favorable for fieldwork, but decreasing soil moisture on the continent. The forecast for next week brings in more widespread showers.

STILL DRY IN THE BLACK SEA

Some isolated showers are moving through the Black Sea region early this week with a front but are very light and spotty. Soil moisture continues to fall in winter wheat areas, unfavorable for establishment. Showers may move through later this week and weekend with a system moving through, but it will also bring a burst of cold temperatures, which may produce some frosts. The region typically has October for establishment before winter freezes come in November from north to south.

STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AUSTRALIA

A stronger cold front is moving through eastern Australia over the next few days, bringing significant rainfall to southeastern areas and a burst of colder air that should ease stress from recent heat. Other areas will not have much precipitation out of the system, which is still largely unfavorable for filling winter wheat and canola.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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