Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A switch from summer warmth to fall chill in the U.S., along with a burst of rain, and heavy rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

HOT, THEN COLD FOR MIDWEST

Scattered showers went through the northwest, but most areas of the Midwest saw heat and dryness building over the weekend, allowing for equipment to get out into the fields after last week's rain. Another front will move through Tuesday night through Friday with widespread showers. Temperatures will fall dramatically behind the front. Some isolated showers may continue into the weekend in the cooler air over the Great Lakes. Dryness and warmth should return next week. Any delays due to rainfall are likely to be short again.

RAIN, THEN SHOT OF COLD FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Outside of a few spotty showers, it was dry in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, allowing harvest and winter wheat planting to run smoothly. A front will push through the region Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms and potential for severe weather and heavy rain. Afterward, cooler temperatures will move in, but will be temporary as temperatures rise next week. Drier weather that follows should allow equipment to move back into the region rather quickly. Soil moisture increases for winter wheat establishment should be favorable as well.

BRIEFLY COLD TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers developed with a front stalled in the Northern Plains over the weekend. A system will form along the front with scattered showers through Tuesday. Much colder air will follow behind the system and may bring a few showers as well, but will only be temporary as a ridge brings in more warmth next week. Showers will cause some delays to harvest this week, but dryness that follows should allow equipment to roll shortly.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

It was dry in the Delta over the weekend, allowing for rapid harvest in the dry soils. A front will move through late this week but showers are forecast to be limited. Drought continues to build in the area.

MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, though they may continue to be isolated. A front will move into southern areas on Tuesday night and bring areas of heavy rain. That front will move into central areas for late in the week, enhancing showers there. Another burst of rain is forecast for southern Brazil this weekend, which may be heavy yet again. Southern areas are dealing with too much rainfall, which has caused flooding and the need to replant early corn in some instances. Other than those issues, increased rainfall is favorable for early establishment.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

It was dry in Argentina over the weekend and the country is in need of more rainfall. A front will move through Tuesday, but showers are likely to be widely scattered and miss some of the important cropland that is in need. While planting conditions are good, establishment conditions are not. Dry weather that is forecast to follow for the next week is not favorable either.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN EUROPE

Some showers went through northern areas of Europe over the weekend. More isolated showers are forecast early this week across the north, then over the northeast later this week. Otherwise, drier and warmer weather should be expected, favorable for fieldwork, but decreasing soil moisture on the continent. The forecast for next week may be more favorable.

STILL DRY IN THE BLACK SEA

It was largely dry over winter wheat areas in the Black Sea region over the weekend. Some isolated showers will move through early this week with a front but are forecast to be very light and spotty. Soil moisture continues to fall in this area, unfavorable for wheat establishment. Showers may move through later this week and weekend with a system moving through, but it will also bring a burst of cold temperatures through, which may produce some frosts. The region typically has the month of October for establishment before winter freezes come in November from north to south.

STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AUSTRALIA

Well-above-normal temperatures have been putting stress on filling wheat and canola as soil moisture continues to drop. A stronger cold front will move through this week, breaking down the heat temporarily, and bringing significant rainfall to southeastern areas. Other areas will not have much precipitation out of the system, which is still largely unfavorable for filling winter wheat and canola.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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