Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Warmth and recent rain in the U.S., the on-time start to the wet season in central Brazil and dryness issues in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EASTERN MIDWEST

A cutoff low-pressure system will continue to slowly move east through the Midwest with scattered showers through Thursday. Recent rainfall has been heavy in spots, but considering how dry soils have been, delays to harvest and winter wheat planting will likely be short. Drier weather should develop by the end of the week and temperatures will continue to be above normal through next week, helping crops to mature.

DRIER AND WARM FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Drier weather continues in the Central and Southern Plains for the next few days, offering better conditions for harvest and winter wheat planting. Isolated showers may start developing on Friday and continue into next week with a trough digging into the West. Showers would benefit winter wheat establishment where they occur, but soil moisture is still good and showers are not critically important just yet. If it remains dry for too long, dryness concerns will arise again.

FRONT MOVING BACK INTO NORTHERN PLAINS

A front will move into the Northern Plains on Thursday and stall, producing scattered showers throughout the weekend and into next week. Recent and forecast rainfall may help the remaining areas of immature corn and soybeans but is hampering the early harvest progress.

DRY FOR THE DELTA

Isolated showers moved through the Delta over the last few days, but most areas stayed dry. Drier weather will continue for the next week, forcing crops to maturity and favoring harvest.

START TO WET SEASON FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front is moving into central Brazil where it will stall, producing areas of showers that should be the start of the wet season. Planting conditions are very good outside of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which has had issues with flooding. Another front moving in later next week could add to the heavy rainfall totals there.

ARGENTINA NEEDS MORE RAIN

An overall drier pattern continues in Argentina through the weekend which should promote planting, but soils are still in need of moisture coming off last year's historic drought. El Nino favors the country with better rainfall during the season, however, and another front will move through early-mid next week with the promise of more showers.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN EUROPE

Most areas in Europe have favorable soil moisture for winter wheat establishment currently. A front late this week may have a few showers in some areas across the north and east. Another will move through early-mid next week with limited showers. Current weather conditions favor fieldwork.

BLACK SEA TOO DRY

A front will push through the Black Sea region this weekend and early next week but is forecast with only limited showers. Soil moisture has been falling for winter wheat establishment, an unfavorable situation, and will need more moisture soon for good root establishment before dormancy. The region may get some help with a system later next week, though that is questionable.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY HOT AND DRY

It should be largely dry in Australia through the weekend. Well-above-normal temperatures have been putting stress on filling wheat and canola as soil moisture continues to drop. A stronger cold front may move through next week, breaking down the heat, but it is not forecast to produce much rainfall outside of the far southeast. The forecast is not favorable for wheat or canola.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.