Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Warmth and recent rain in the U.S., the on-time start to the wet season in central Brazil, and dryness issues in Australia are the weather factors driving markets Tuesday.

SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR MIDWEST

A cutoff low-pressure system created waves of showers and thunderstorms for the western half of the Midwest over the weekend, heavy in a lot of areas, which will help somewhat with the drought situation and limit the fall of water levels on the river systems. The system will continue to slowly move east through the region this week with some more limited areas of showers moving through. Considering how dry the soil has been, delays to harvest and winter wheat planting will likely be short. Drier weather should develop by the end of the week and temperatures will continue to be above normal through next week, helping crops to mature.

DRIER AND WARM FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Drier weather continues to be in place across the Central and Southern Plains most of the week, offering better conditions for harvest and winter wheat planting. Isolated showers may start developing on Friday and continue into next week with a trough digging into the West. Showers would benefit winter wheat establishment where they occur, but soil moisture is still above normal and showers are not critically important just yet.

FRONT MOVING BACK INTO NORTHERN PLAINS

A front will move into the Northern Plains on Thursday and stall, producing scattered showers throughout the weekend and into next week. Recent and forecast rainfall may help the remaining areas of immature corn and soybeans but is hampering the early harvest progress.

DRYING OUT IN THE DELTA

Isolated showers moved through the Delta over the last few days, but many areas stayed dry. Drier weather will continue for the next week, forcing crops to maturity and favoring harvest.

START OF THE WET SEASON COMING FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front in southern Brazil will be forced into central areas later this week and stall there, producing areas of showers that should be the start of the wet season, which would be on time. Planting conditions are very good outside of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which has had issues with flooding.

ARGENTINA NEEDS MORE RAIN

A front across northern Argentina produced some showers over the weekend and will continue to do so Tuesday before it lifts north. Southern areas also have some limited showers moving through Tuesday. An overall drier pattern will follow through the weekend which should promote planting, but soils are still in need of moisture coming off of last year's historic drought. El Nino favors the country with better rainfall during the season, however, and another front will move through early-mid next week with the promise of more showers.

DRYING OUT IN EUROPE

It will be dry in Europe for most of the week. Most areas of the continent have favorable soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. A front late this week may have a few showers in some areas across the north and east. Another will move through early next week with limited showers as well. Current weather conditions favor fieldwork.

BLACK SEA TOO DRY

Dry weather continues in the Black Sea region throughout the week. A front will push through this weekend and early next week but is forecast with only limited showers. Soil moisture has been falling for winter wheat establishment, an unfavorable situation, and will need more moisture soon for good root establishment before dormancy.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY HOT AND DRY

It should be largely dry in Australia this week. Well-above-normal temperatures have been putting stress on filling wheat and canola as soil moisture continues to slowly drop. A stronger cold front may move through this weekend and next week, breaking down the heat, but it is not forecast to produce much rainfall. The forecast is not favorable for wheat or canola.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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