Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain in the Western Corn Belt, warm temperatures for the U.S., and the on-time start to the wet season in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR MIDWEST

A system moving into the Midwest created waves of showers and thunderstorms for the western half of the region over the weekend -- heavy in a lot of areas -- which will help somewhat with the drought situation and limiting the fall of water levels on the river systems. The system will continue to slowly move through the region with some more limited areas of showers through Thursday. With how dry soils have been, any delays to harvest will likely be short. Drier weather should develop by the end of the week and temperatures will continue to be above normal into next week, helping crops to mature and equipment to roll.

DRIER AND WARM FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, heavy in some areas to the north and east, which likely delayed harvest to some degree. Drier weather should be in place most of the week, offering better conditions for harvest and winter wheat planting. Isolated showers may start developing Friday and especially this weekend with a trough digging into the West. Showers would benefit winter wheat establishment where they occur, but soil moisture is still above normal and showers are not critically important just yet.

FRONT MOVING BACK INTO NORTHERN PLAINS

A system brought widespread moderate to heavy showers through the Northern Plains this weekend. Most of this week will be dry, but another front will move in late this week with scattered showers through the weekend and into next week. Recent and forecast rainfall may help the remaining areas of immature corn and soybeans, but is hampering early harvest progress.

DRYING OUT IN THE DELTA

Isolated showers moved through the Delta this weekend, but most areas stayed dry. Drier weather will continue, forcing crops toward maturity and favoring harvest.

START TO WET SEASON COMING FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front in southern Brazil produced scattered showers this weekend and will continue there for the next couple of days. The front will be forced into central Brazil later this week and stall there, producing areas of showers that should be the start of the wet season, which would be on time. Planting conditions are very good outside of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which has had issues with flooding.

ARGENTINA NEEDS MORE RAIN

A front across northern Argentina produced some showers over the weekend and will continue to do so early this week before it lifts north. Southern areas also saw a little rain this weekend and a little more is expected early this week, too. An overall drier pattern later this week into next should promote planting, but soils are still in need of moisture coming off of last year's historic drought. El Nino favors the country with better rainfall during the season, however.

DRYING OUT IN EUROPE

A system brought another round of widespread rainfall to Europe over the weekend and most areas in the continent have favorable soil moisture for winter wheat establishment currently. A front later this week may have a few showers in some areas, otherwise it'll be rather dry, favoring fieldwork.

BLACK SEA TOO DRY

Dry weather continues in the Black Sea region through the week. A front will push through this weekend and early next week, but is forecast with only limited showers. Soil moisture has been falling for winter wheat establishment, an unfavorable situation, and will need more moisture soon for good root establishment before dormancy.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY HOT AND DRY

It should be largely dry in Australia this week. Well-above-normal temperatures have been putting stress on filling wheat and canola as soil moisture continues to slowly drop. A stronger cold front may move through this weekend and next week, breaking down the heat, but is not forecast to produce much rainfall. The forecast is not favorable for wheat or canola.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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