Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain potential in the middle of the U.S., and good planting weather in most of South America outside of southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

HEAVY RAIN FORECAST FOR WESTERN MIDWEST

Waves of showers will move through the western Midwest as a storm system slowly makes its way into the region through the weekend. Showers should diminish early next week as the system slowly fades away to the east or south. Rain is largely too late to be beneficial and will delay early harvest plans in some areas instead.

HEAVY RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system moving into the Central and Southern Plains on Thursday will be slow to move east with multiple rounds of precipitation through the weekend before it leaves. Areas of heavy rain will benefit winter wheat establishment, but not corn and soybean harvest. Western areas are more likely to be dry, which will allow for more winter wheat planting.

RAIN CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system will continue to produce areas of scattered showers through the weekend in the Northern Plains. Some areas of heavy rain will be possible, which may have some benefit for late-filling corn and soybeans but will delay harvest.

SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

A front will move through the Delta with the potential for limited rain Sunday and Monday. Some showers may occur ahead of the front on Friday but are not forecast to be much. Cotton is running out of time for rainfall to be helpful and the coming rain may be heavy enough to disrupt harvest progress for soybeans.

MORE HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front in southern Brazil will continue with periods of showers into next week, shifting northward late next week. There could be additional flooding concerns for Rio Grande do Sul. Early soybean and full-season corn planting should otherwise continue to go well. The rainfall farther north may be the kicker to the start of the wet season rains, which would be on time.

FAVORABLE PLANTING WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

A front will produce areas of showers for northern Argentina at various points going into next week. Southern areas may get in on some rainfall Friday through Monday. Recent and forecast rain is improving soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR EUROPE

A system brought widespread showers to Europe earlier this week. Another round of the system is sweeping through the continent with more widespread rain through the weekend. Overall, soil moisture is adequate or improving for winter wheat planting and establishment, but rain is limiting summer grain harvest. Another front may bring some showers next week.

BLACK SEA GETTING TOO DRY

A front brought light showers to western Ukraine Wednesday. Another front may do the same this weekend but also looks light. Soil moisture has been falling as winter wheat is planted farther east, but it is not critically dry yet. Still, conditions are trending the wrong way.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY HOT AND DRY

It should be largely dry for the next week in Australia. Well-above-normal temperatures have been putting stress on filling wheat and canola as soil moisture continues to slowly drop. Temperatures are cooler today but are forecast to rise well above normal this weekend. The forecast is not favorable for either crop.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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