DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in Canada with a trough in the West. The trough will slowly shift eastward this weekend but not make it very far, getting stuck in the Midwest for much of next week as the ridge builds in Canada.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will drop down into the eastern Pacific this weekend and will attempt to move eastward at the end of the month or into October.

The U.S. and European models have differences on how to treat the storm system in the middle of the country next week. I will use a blend.

For the outlook period, temperatures will largely be above-normal for most of the country. A system in the middle of the country will likely be slow to move east next week and continue areas of showers. We may see another system move into the Plains late next week or weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...111 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW WED...17 AT 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF KIRK, OR

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT WEDNESDAY...KEY WEST, FL 1.49 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in Canada with a trough in the West. The trough will slowly shift eastward this weekend but not make it very far, getting stuck in the Midwest for much of next week as the ridge builds in Canada. Another trough will drop down into the eastern Pacific this weekend and will attempt to move eastward at the end of the month or into October.

The U.S. and European models have differences on how to treat the storm system in the middle of the country next week. I will use a blend.

For the outlook period, temperatures will largely be above normal for most of the country. A system in the middle of the country will likely be slow to move east next week and continue areas of showers. We may see another system move into the Plains late next week or weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will continue to produce areas of scattered showers through the weekend. Some areas of heavy rain will be possible, which may have some benefit for late-filling corn and soybeans but will delay harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system moving into the region on Thursday will be slow to move east with multiple rounds of precipitation through the weekend before it leaves. Areas of heavy rain will be beneficial for winter wheat establishment, but not corn and soybean harvest.

Western areas are more likely to be dry, which will allow for more winter wheat planting to occur.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Waves of showers will move through western areas as a storm system slowly moves into the region through the weekend. Showers should diminish early next week as the system slowly fades away to the east or south. Rain is largely too late to be a benefit and will delay early harvest plans in some areas instead.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front will move through the region with potential for limited rain Sunday and Monday. Some showers may occur ahead of the front on Friday. Cotton is running out of time for rainfall to be helpful and the coming rains may be heavy enough to disrupt harvest progress for soybeans.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front in the south will continue with periods of showers into next week, shifting northward late next week. There could be additional flooding concerns for Rio Grande do Sul. Early soybean and full-season corn planting should otherwise continue to go well. The rainfall farther north may be the kicker to the start of the wet season rains, which would be on time.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front will produce areas of showers for northern areas at various points going into next week. Southern areas may get in on some rainfall Friday through Monday. Recent and forecast rain is improving soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system brought widespread showers earlier this week. Another round of the system is sweeping through the continent with more widespread rain through the weekend. Overall, soil moisture is adequate or improving for winter wheat planting and establishment, but rain is limiting summer grain harvest. Another front may bring some showers next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A front brought light showers to western areas Wednesday. Another front may do the same this weekend but also looks light.

Soil moisture has been falling as winter wheat is planted, but it is not critically dry yet. Still, conditions are trending the wrong way.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers fell earlier this week, including some heavier rain on the North China Plain. Occasional showers are set to continue for the next week. Recent showers have been frequent, good enough for late-filling corn and soybeans as well as bringing some soil moisture for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It should be largely dry for the next week.

Well-above normal temperatures have been putting stress on filling wheat and canola as soil moisture continues to slowly drop. Temperatures are cooler today, but are forecast to rise well above normal this weekend. The forecast is not favorable for either crop.

INDIA (RICE/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): The country has had a disappointing monsoon season thus far with below-normal rainfall thanks to a building El Nino and a change in the pattern across the Indian Ocean. An upper-level low increased precipitation over the last couple of weeks, but not enough to fill reservoirs for irrigating wheat and rice over the winter into next spring once the monsoon shuts down later this month into October. Still, rainfall continues across much of the country outside of the far northwest.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Isolated showers west and north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday.

Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

East: Isolated showers through Monday, mostly west. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday, mostly south.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday, near to well above normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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