Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain potential in the Western Corn Belt and good planting weather in most of South America outside of southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

HEAVY RAIN FORECAST FOR WESTERN MIDWEST

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the Midwest the next couple of days, mostly across western areas of the region. A system will move into the region Friday but be slow to move out next week. Rain should be heavier near and west of the Mississippi River. Rain is largely too late to be a benefit and will delay early harvest plans in some areas instead.

HEAVY RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system moving into the Central and Southern Plains on Thursday will be slow to move east with multiple rounds of precipitation through the weekend before it leaves. Areas of heavy rain will be beneficial for winter wheat establishment, but not corn and soybean harvest. Most areas in the southwest should stay dry, helping winter wheat planting.

RAIN COMING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system moving into the Northern Plains Wednesday will produce areas of scattered showers through the weekend. Some areas of heavy rain will be possible, which may have some benefit for late-filling corn and soybeans but will delay harvest.

LARGELY DRY IN THE DELTA

A system will move into the Delta this weekend or early next week with potential for limited rain. Cotton is running out of time for rainfall to be helpful and the coming rain may be heavy enough to disrupt harvest progress for soybeans.

MORE HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front in southern Brazil will continue with periods of showers for most of the week and possibly into next week as well. There could be additional flooding concerns for Rio Grande do Sul. Early soybean and full-season corn planting should otherwise continue to go well.

FAVORABLE PLANTING WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

A front will produce areas of showers for northern Argentina at various points going into next week. Southern areas may get in on some rainfall later this week and weekend as well. Recent and forecast rain is improving soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR EUROPE

A system brought widespread showers to Europe earlier this week. Another round of the system will sweep through the continent with more widespread rain through the weekend. Overall, soil moisture is adequate or improving for winter wheat planting and establishment, but rain is limiting summer grain harvest. Drier conditions are expected for most of next week.

BLACK SEA GETTING TOO DRY

A front is bringing light showers to western areas of the Black Sea region Wednesday. Another front may do the same this weekend but also looks light. Soil moisture has been falling as winter wheat is planted, but it is not critically dry yet. Still, conditions are trending the wrong way.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY HOT AND DRY

It should be largely dry in Australia for the next week. Well-above normal temperatures have been putting stress on filling wheat and canola as soil moisture continues to slowly drop. Temperatures are falling in eastern areas behind a mostly dry front but are forecast to rise well above normal again after a few days. The forecast is not favorable for either crop.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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