Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain potential in the Western Corn Belt and good planting weather in most of South America outside of southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST NEXT FEW DAYS

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the next couple of days, mostly across western areas of the Midwest. A system will move into the region on Friday and slowly move out next week. Rain should be heavier for western areas as opposed to eastern ones. Rain is largely too late to be a benefit and will delay early harvest plans in some areas instead.

SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the Central and Southern Plains for the next couple of days, but a system moving in Thursday will slowly move east with multiple rounds of precipitation through the weekend before it leaves. Areas of heavy rain will be beneficial for winter wheat establishment but not corn and soybean harvest.

RAIN COMING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system will move into the Northern Plains on Wednesday with scattered showers throughout the weekend. Some areas of heavy rain will be possible, which may have some benefit for late-filling corn and soybeans but will delay any remaining wheat harvest and early corn and soybean harvest.

DRY IN THE DELTA

It should be dry in the Delta for most of the week. A system will move into the region this weekend or early next week with the potential for limited rain. Cotton is running out of time for rainfall to be helpful and the coming rain may be heavy enough to disrupt harvest progress for soybeans.

MORE HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front in southern Brazil will continue with periods of showers for most of the week and possibly into next week as well. It does not look as heavy as last week's forecast. However, there could be additional flooding concerns for Rio Grande do Sul. Early soybean planting should otherwise go well this week as restrictions lift.

FAVORABLE PLANTING WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

A front will produce areas of showers for northern Argentina at various points throughout the week. Southern areas may get in on some rainfall later this week and weekend. Recent and forecast rain is improving soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR EUROPE

A system continues to sweep showers across eastern Europe on Tuesday. Another round of the system will move into western areas late this week and continue eastward for the weekend. Overall, soil moisture is adequate or improving for winter wheat planting and establishment, but rain is limiting summer grain harvest. Drier conditions are expected next week.

BLACK SEA COULD USE MORE RAIN FOR WHEAT

A front may bring light showers to western areas of the Black Sea region on Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise, this week will be dry. Another front may bring showers to western areas this weekend but also looks light. Soil moisture has been falling as winter wheat is planted in the east, but it is not critically dry yet. Still, conditions are trending the wrong way.

AUSTRALIA HOT AND DRY

It should be largely dry in Australia for the next week. Well-above-normal temperatures have been putting stress on filling wheat and canola as soil moisture continues to slowly drop. Temperatures fall in eastern areas behind a mostly dry front later this week but are forecast to rise well above normal again after a few days. The forecast is not favorable for either crop.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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