Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Weather factors driving the markets Friday include rain in the Plains next week and good planting weather in most of South America outside of southern Brazil.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

A front will bring isolated showers with mostly light amounts through the Midwest this weekend. Temperatures will rise next week. Early harvest conditions continue to be mostly favorable, but more rain would be welcome for immature crops and winter wheat establishment. A system that moves into the Plains in the middle of next week may bring better showers to at least the western half of the region later next week and weekend, but that is still being determined.

MORE RAINFALL FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front will continue to move through the Central and Southern Plains with showers through Saturday, heavier around Texas. Another system moves into the region in the middle of next week with scattered showers, potentially into the following weekend. Moderate to heavy amounts will be possible with this system, which will slow down the maturing process for corn and soybeans but perk up soil moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment.

RAIN COMING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Light showers moved through over the last couple of days but with little consequence. Another system will move in during the middle of next week with a chance for more widespread and heavier showers through the following weekend. Temperatures will waffle a bit but end up mostly above normal going into next week.

FAIRLY DRY IN THE DELTA

Rather dry conditions are forecast in the Delta for the next week, favorable for maturing crops and harvesting of soybeans, but not for filling cotton. Drought areas across the South received some rain this week but not enough to turn around the momentum for deeper drought.

MORE HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front brought heavy rain to southern Brazil this week. Rain is favorable for wheat, except where flooding occurs. Another front will settle off to the south with periods of rain which may be heavy again. Heavy rain could cause issues with early planting but is setting up most of Brazil with good conditions for establishment as planting increases throughout the month.

FAVORABLE PLANTING WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

Rainfall has been increasing in Argentina lately, easing the country out of last season's historic drought. Another front and system will move through early-mid next week. Northern areas stand to benefit the most from rainfall, but the country is in better shape for developing wheat and any early corn planting.

MORE RAIN COMING FOR EUROPE

Temperatures are rising in Europe again ahead of a larger system, which is forecast for the weekend into next week and could bring strong winds and heavy rainfall. The system stays active across the north for late next week. Overall, conditions are favorable for harvest and winter wheat planting and early establishment, though not perfect for either. Next week will be more difficult for planting in most areas.

BLACK SEA COULD USE MORE RAIN FOR WHEAT

Winter wheat areas in the Black Sea region could use more rain for establishment, but it is not critically dry yet. A system is moving through over the next day or so, but showers are limited for most areas. Dry conditions follow for most of next week with increasing temperatures. Isolated showers may move through Ukraine with a couple of weak fronts. This is an unfavorable forecast for wheat establishment.

AUSTRALIA HOT AND DRY

It should be largely dry in Australia for the next week with well-above-normal temperatures putting stress on reproductive to filling wheat and canola as soil moisture continues to slowly drop.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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