Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Mild weather in the Corn Belt and heavier rain in the Plains and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MILD MIDWEST THIS WEEK

A front brought some showers into the Midwest over the weekend, but they were mostly light. The system will continue to bring more showers through Tuesday along with another burst of mild air. Drier conditions follow. Early harvest conditions continue to be favorable, but more rain would be welcome for immature crops.

HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front brought scattered showers into the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend and will continue south through Wednesday. Another system will move into the region on Thursday and continue through Saturday, making for a week's worth of showers for the region. Moderate to heavy amounts may be possible, slowing down the maturing process for corn and soybeans but perking up soil moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment.

MILD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend. Additional light showers will move through with a couple of systems this week but should not impact harvest much. Mild temperatures early in the week will increase a bit later in the week.

SOME SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

It was mostly dry in the Delta over the weekend. A front will move through Tuesday and Wednesday with isolated showers. Another system will move through this weekend into early next week and may bring some. Any rain could cause delays in the soybean harvest but would help immature cotton.

MORE HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front brought heavy rain to southern Brazil over the weekend. Another will bring more heavy rain potential Tuesday through Thursday. Rain is favorable for wheat, except where flooding occurs. Heavy rain could cause issues with the remaining safrinha corn harvest and planting but is setting up most of Brazil with good conditions as planting increases throughout the month.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

Rainfall has been increasing in Argentina lately and another front moving through early this week should produce more showers, easing the country out of last season's historic drought. Quieter conditions follow for the next week, but the country is in good shape for developing wheat and any early corn planting.

SYSTEM ERASING EXTREME HEAT IN EUROPE

Very hot and largely dry conditions occurred in Europe over the weekend, accelerating this year's crop toward maturity and causing favorable conditions for harvest. Scattered showers moved through far western areas on Sunday and that system will sweep through most of Europe with showers this week. Temperatures will moderate a bit behind the system but will perk back up after a couple of days. A larger system is forecast for the weekend into next week that could bring some strong winds and heavy rainfall. Overall, conditions are favorable for harvest and winter wheat planting and early establishment, though not perfect for either.

BLACK SEA COULD USE MORE RAIN FOR WHEAT

It was dry over the weekend in Ukraine while western Russia saw some light rain in spots. Overall, it was neither favorable nor unfavorable for maturing corn or winter wheat planting and establishment. Winter wheat areas could use more rain for establishment, but it is not critically dry yet. The system that moves through Europe will also sweep through the Black Sea region, but showers look limited at this time.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY TOO DRY FOR WHEAT AND CANOLA

It was dry in Australia over the weekend and should be largely dry this week as well. Soil moisture continues to slowly drop as El Nino takes control. With heat also expected to build this week, especially across the east, conditions for reproductive to filling wheat and canola continue to drop.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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