Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Mild weather in the Corn Belt and heavier rain in the Plains and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MILD MIDWEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK

A front will move through the Midwest this weekend into early next week, bringing another round of mild temperatures and the potential for light rain. With crops maturing, the percentage that can take advantage of these late rains is dwindling.

HEAVIER RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front will be pushed through the Central and Southern Plains Sunday through Wednesday. Scattered showers are expected and could be widespread and moderate-to-heavy. Temperatures south of the front will continue to be hot while a burst of milder air follows the front next week. Some rain may be significant for filling corn and soybeans that can still take advantage, though there is less of a crop that can.

MILD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Variable, though mild, temperatures and some sporadic showers are expected in the Northern Plains through the weekend, which may or may not be helpful for maturing corn and soybeans. Temperatures will increase later next week.

GOING DRIER FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

After some isolated showers move through Friday, the forecast is trending drier for most of next week for the Canadian Prairies. Along with increasing temperatures, that should help with the remaining harvest.

SOME SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

A front will be in the Delta on Friday and could bring some showers through southern areas in drought. Another front will move through mid-late next week with scattered showers as well. Rain is coming too late to help with much of soybean or cotton crops as they start to reach maturity.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front has been bringing more heavy rain to southern Brazil and will continue to do so through Saturday. Another front will move through southern areas with more rain next week. Recent heavy rains caused flooding, which may damage wheat and bog down the remaining safrinha corn harvest but is keeping soil moisture high for early planting of corn and soybeans for good establishment. Improved soil moisture over central areas is favorable for planting once the daily wet season showers develop.

DROUGHT EASING IN ARGENTINA

A front and system brought better rainfall to parts of Argentina this week. The pattern remains active with another system moving through early next week with more rain. Conditions are becoming much more favorable as planting season approaches.

SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH EUROPE

Hotter and drier conditions continue for most of Europe through the weekend, favoring harvest and winter wheat planting. A system is forecast to move through next week with widespread rainfall for the continent and milder temperatures, though still above normal. We may see another big system next weekend into the following week.

BLACK SEA COULD USE MORE RAIN FOR WHEAT

A system continues to dive southward through Russia over the next day or two but will have limited precipitation only for eastern areas of the Black Sea region. After a brief dip in temperatures, they will rise again next week. Maturing corn and sunflowers are finding favorable conditions while immature crops are finishing out the year in poorer conditions. Winter wheat could use more rainfall for establishment but may have to wait until late next week for a front to move through with showers.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY TOO DRY FOR WHEAT AND CANOLA

A system brought some showers to southeastern Australia this week, but many areas remain drier than optimal, and temperatures have been above normal often in recent months. Drier conditions are forecast for next week. El Nino is favoring the hotter and drier conditions in eastern Australia, which figures to have poorer production as wheat and canola continue to go through reproductive stages in September.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.