Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Mild weather in the Corn Belt and heavier rain in southern Brazil and Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MILD MIDWEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK

A system continues to bring isolated showers to the eastern Midwest on Thursday along with cooler air for the region. Another front will move through this weekend into early next week, bringing another round of mild temperatures and potential for rain. With crops maturing, the percentage that can take advantage of some of these late rains is dwindling.

HEAVIER RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front will waffle in the Central Plains over the next couple of days, being pushed south Sunday through Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected, especially this weekend into next week as the front moves through, and could be widespread and moderate to heavy. Temperatures south of the front will continue to be hot while a burst of milder air follows next week. Some rain may be significant for filling corn and soybeans that can still take advantage, though there is less of a crop that can.

MILD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Variable, though mild, temperatures and some sporadic showers are expected in the Northern Plains through the weekend, which may or may not be helpful for maturing corn and soybeans. Temperatures will increase later next week.

GOING DRIER FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Another disturbance will move through the Canadian Prairies Thursday and Friday with some isolated showers, but the forecast is trending drier. Any rain may continue to disrupt the remaining wheat and canola harvests. Showers would be more favorable for forages and for rebuilding soil moisture, however. Above-normal temperatures are expected next week which will favor harvest.

SOME SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

A front will be in the Delta through Friday and could bring some showers through. Another front will move through mid- to late-next week with scattered showers as well. Rain is becoming too late to help with much of the soybean or cotton crop as they start to reach maturity.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front will move through over the next few days with potential for more heavy rain for southern Brazil. Another front will move through southern areas with more rain next week. Recent heavy rain has caused flooding damage, which may outweigh the benefits of heavy rain prior to planting. Improved soil moisture over central areas is favorable for planting once the daily wet season showers develop.

DROUGHT EASING IN ARGENTINA

A front and system continue to move through Argentina Thursday, which has brought better rainfall to parts of the country. The pattern remains active with another system moving through early next week with more rain. Conditions are becoming much more favorable as planting season approaches.

HOT AND DRY FOR EUROPE

Hotter and drier conditions continue for most of Europe through the weekend, favoring harvest and winter wheat planting. A system is forecast to move through next week with widespread rainfall for the continent and milder temperatures, though there is some uncertainty with this forecast.

BLACK SEA COULD USE MORE RAIN FOR WHEAT

A system will dive southward through western Russia over the next couple of days, but will have limited precipitation only for eastern areas. After a brief dip in temperatures, they will rise again next week. Maturing corn and sunflowers are finding favorable conditions while immature crops are finishing out the year in poorer conditions. Winter wheat could use more rainfall for establishment, but may have to wait until late next week for a front to move through with showers.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY TOO DRY FOR WHEAT AND CANOLA

A system brought some showers to southeastern Australia which continues through the end of the week, but many areas remain drier than optimal and temperatures have been above-normal more often than not in recent months. El Nino is favoring the hotter and drier conditions in eastern Australia, which figures to have poorer production as wheat and canola continue to go through reproductive stages in September.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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