Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Mild and somewhat showery conditions for the Central U.S. and heavier rain in southern Brazil and Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

HEAT PUSHING OUT OF THE MIDWEST

A system will continue to move through the Midwest on Wednesday and Thursday, which may bring some areas of moderate rainfall. Temperatures behind the system are moderating to near normal, flushing out the heat from the weekend. Another front will move through this weekend into early next week, bringing another round of mild temperatures and the potential for rain. With crops maturing, the percentage that can take advantage of some of these late rains is dwindling.

FRONT BRINGING RELIEF TO CENTRAL PLAINS

A front is moving through with more seasonable temperatures for the Central Plains. The Southern Plains will continue to be hot. The front will waffle in the region through the weekend, being pushed through early next week. Scattered showers will be possible, but most likely as the front moves next week. Some rain may be significant for filling corn and soybeans that can still take advantage, though that's becoming less and less.

MILD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system moved through the Northern Plains with significant rainfall Monday and Tuesday along with a major drop in temperatures. Variable, though mild, temperatures and some sporadic showers will follow through the weekend, which may affect maturing corn and soybeans.

SHOWERS DISRUPTING HARVEST IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A few disturbances will move through the Canadian Prairies over the next week with additional showers. Any rain may disrupt the remaining wheat and canola harvests. Showers would be more favorable for forages and for rebuilding soil moisture.

SOME SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

Rain fell in the Delta this weekend into early this week. A front will be in the region for the rest of the week and could bring rain at times. Another front will move through mid-late next week with scattered showers as well. Rain is coming too late to help with much of the soybean or cotton crop as they start to reach maturity.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A system brought heavy rain to southern and south-central Brazil over the long weekend, which may have caused some flooding damage to filling wheat and mature corn that has been awaiting harvest. The front may bring more showers to central Brazil on Wednesday. Another front will move through later this week and weekend, with the potential for heavy rain in southern areas. Flooding damage may outweigh the benefits of heavy rain at this juncture in the season, especially if the pattern remains active for the rest of September. Improved soil moisture over central areas is favorable once the daily wet season showers develop.

DROUGHT EASING IN ARGENTINA

Widespread moderate to heavy rain fell across most of Argentina over the weekend, highly favorable for easing the drought and prepping soils before spring planting. Winter wheat will certainly benefit. Another front and system will move through Wednesday and Thursday, though showers will be better for northeastern areas than elsewhere. The pattern remains active through at least mid-September with multiple systems lining up. Conditions become much more favorable as planting season approaches.

HOT AND DRY FOR EUROPE

Hotter and drier conditions continue for most areas of Europe through the weekend, favoring harvest and winter wheat planting. A system is forecast to move through next week with widespread rainfall for the continent and milder temperatures, though there is some uncertainty with this forecast.

BLACK SEA CONDITIONS MIXED

Isolated showers fell in the Black Sea region over the weekend, but most areas remained dry with above-normal temperatures which kept corn and sunflowers reaching for maturity. Conditions were fair for winter wheat planting, but better showers in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia would be more favorable for those prospects. A system will dive southward over the next couple of days but will have limited precipitation. Temperatures will briefly cool behind the system.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY TOO DRY FOR WHEAT AND CANOLA

A system will bring some showers to southeastern Australia later this week, but many areas remain drier than optimal, and temperatures have been above-normal more often than not in recent months. El Nino is favoring the hotter and drier conditions in eastern Australia, which figures to have poorer production as wheat and canola continue to go through reproductive stages in September.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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