Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An early withdrawal of the heat for the Central U.S. and heavier rain in southern Brazil and Argentina are the weather factors driving Tuesday's markets.

HEAT BEING SWEPT OUT OF THE MIDWEST

Temperatures became significantly warm for the western half of the Midwest over the holiday weekend, and eastern areas saw temperatures rise above normal as well. However, a tropical feature moved north on Monday and brought some rainfall to Missouri and into Illinois. The moisture will feed a system moving through Tuesday and Wednesday, which may end up bringing significant late rainfall to some areas. Temperatures will also moderate to near normal after the front moves through. Another front will move through this weekend into early next week, bringing another round of mild temperatures and the potential for rain. This forecast is far more favorable than last week's hot and dry outlook.

FRONT BRINGING RELIEF TO CENTRAL PLAINS

The heat has been intense for the Central and Southern Plains over the holiday weekend with widespread triple-digit temperatures. A front will move through with more seasonable temperatures for the Central Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Southern Plains will continue to be hot. The front will waffle through the region for the following week, offering potential showers. Some may be significant for filling corn and soybeans that can still take advantage.

MILD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Though it got very hot over the holiday weekend, a system moved into the Northern Plains with significant rainfall on Monday and continued into Tuesday. Temperatures behind the front will be milder, making the heat wave a short one. Variable temperatures and some sporadic showers will follow through the weekend and affect maturing corn and soybeans.

SHOWERS DISRUPTING HARVEST IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system went through the Canadian Prairies Sunday and Monday with scattered showers. More disturbances will move through this week with additional showers. Any rain may disrupt any remaining wheat and canola harvests. Showers would be more favorable for forages and rebuilding soil moisture.

SOME SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

Temperatures rose well into the 90s for most of the Delta over the holiday weekend, but it eventually came with widespread rainfall. The rainfall was far more important than the temperatures for immature soybeans and cotton, though conditions for early harvest are not as favorable now. A front will be in the region most of the week and could bring bouts of rain at times.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A system brought heavy rain to southern and south-central Brazil over the long weekend, which may have caused some flooding damage to filling wheat and mature corn awaiting harvest. The front may bring more showers to central Brazil in the next couple of days. Another front will move through later this week and weekend with the potential for heavy rain in southern areas. Flooding damage may outweigh the benefits of heavy rain at this juncture in the season, especially if the pattern remains active for the rest of September. Improved soil moisture over central areas is favorable once the daily wet season showers develop.

DROUGHT EASING IN ARGENTINA

Widespread moderate to heavy rain fell across most of Argentina over the weekend, highly favorable for easing the drought and prepping soils before spring planting. Winter wheat will certainly benefit. Another front and system will move through Wednesday and Thursday, though showers will be better for northeastern areas than elsewhere. The pattern remains active through at least mid-September with multiple systems lining up to move through. Conditions are becoming much more favorable as planting season approaches.

HOT AND DRY FOR EUROPE

Scattered showers fell across Spain and eastern Europe over the weekend. This week will be hotter and drier for most areas, favoring harvest and winter wheat planting. A system is forecast to move through next week with widespread rainfall for the continent and milder temperatures, though there is some uncertainty with this forecast. Conditions are still mostly favorable across the continent.

BLACK SEA CONDITIONS MIXED

Isolated showers fell in the Black Sea region over the weekend, but most areas remained dry with above-normal temperatures which kept corn and sunflowers reaching for maturity. Conditions were fair for winter wheat planting, however, but better showers in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia would be more favorable for those prospects.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY TOO DRY FOR WHEAT AND CANOLA

Outside of some spotty showers across southern Australia, it was drier over the long weekend. A system may be able to bring some showers to southeastern areas later this week, but many areas remain drier than optimal, and temperatures have been above normal more often in recent months. El Nino is favoring the hotter and drier conditions in eastern Australia, which figures to have poorer production as wheat and canola continue to go through reproductive stages with lower soil moisture in September.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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