Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A slight change to the hot and relatively dry forecast for the Central U.S., early rain for central Brazil and heavier rain in southern Brazil and Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

HEAT RETURNING TO MIDWEST, BUT SOME SHOWERS, TOO

Temperatures will rise in the Midwest again this weekend, and significant heat is forecast for early next week. A system passing through Canada will bring a front into and likely through the region mid-late next week and may be followed by another to end the week. The two will help to cut down the extreme heat, though above-normal temperatures are forecast to continue into next weekend. Showers will also be possible with the two systems, any of which would be helpful for filling corn and soybeans.

HOT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heat will continue to build in the Central and Southern Plains through the weekend and will be intense at times through next week. Any rainfall will be spotty and more likely for northern areas, not a good way to end the season for filling corn and soybeans.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Above-normal temperatures will continue in the Northern Plains through the weekend. A system will pass through Monday and Tuesday with scattered showers and milder temperatures. A couple of other disturbances may do the same behind it next week. Where showers hit will favor filling corn and soybeans. Areas that are missed will see stress.

SHOWERS DISRUPTING HARVEST IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Disturbances will continue to run through the Canadian Prairies through mid-September with scattered showers, possibly disrupting wheat and canola harvests. It would be more favorable for forages and start the process of rebuilding soil moisture.

SOME SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

Milder temperatures are in the Delta now, but heat will return this weekend into next week. Leftover tropical energy will move along the Gulf Coast over the next few days. It may be pushed northward through the region early to mid-week, bringing the potential showers for filling soybeans and cotton.

HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A stalled front in central Brazil brought rainfall well in advance of the normal wet season, which typically sets in late September or early October. Isolated showers may continue through the weekend. Rains ahead of planting help condition soils after a long dry season. Planting may start early due to the better soil conditions, a favorable situation for both the coming soybean and safrinha corn crops. A front moving into southern areas this weekend will likely bring more rounds of rain, some of which may be heavy and damaging for wheat but will continue to delay the remaining safrinha corn harvest.

SIGNIFICANT RAIN COMING TO ARGENTINA

A front and system moving through Argentina over the next few days is forecast to bring heavier rain to a lot of the country, which needs rain after last season's drought. Another may do the same later next week. El Nino is a favorable background feature for the country and the continued active weather pattern suggests that is starting to pick up prior to spring planting, which begins in about a month.

TURNING WARM FOR EUROPE

Recent rain in eastern Europe has been favorable for filling spring grains like corn. The pattern remains active through the weekend with additional showers moving through. Warmer temperatures will return next week, which will be stressful for any filling crops. Soil moisture is currently favorable for early winter planting, but the coming heat could significantly reduce it going into mid-September.

BLACK SEA SEEING HEAT, LIMITED RAIN

A front is bringing some showers to Ukraine on Friday. More showers are possible behind it this weekend, but eastern areas will stay dry with above-normal temperatures into next week. Western areas will be warm as well, which may continue to stress drier corn areas. Rainfall would be welcome in advance of winter wheat planting, though that prospect looks rather limited through mid-September.

AUSTRALIA BECOMING TOO DRY FOR WHEAT AND CANOLA

Hotter and drier conditions have been more common across most of Australia lately and that continues into early September. The extreme southeast corner may end up with some shots at rainfall, but most of the country remains dry. With winter wheat and canola entering reproductive stages, the dwindling soil moisture seen over the last few months is concerning for the crop, especially with the warmth being more common, thanks to El Nino.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.