Commodities Market Impact Weather

Teresa Deutchman
Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) –- A trough in south-central Canada will keep an active pattern for much of the Corn Belt into the end of the week. Across southern Brazil, areas of moderate to heavy rain are possible over the next few days, which could halt progress on safrinha corn harvest in some areas.

STORMS FOR THE MIDWEST

Additional fronts will drop out of Canada throughout the rest of the week with potential for more showers while temperatures stay mild. Rain is coming at enough frequency to maintain or boost soil moisture in some areas, though there are plenty that are also seeing disappointment and low soil moisture, creating mixed conditions for developing corn and soybeans.

HEAT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SPORADIC RAIN IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS

More moderate rainfall fell across Oklahoma last night into this morning. Rainfall looks likely across the Central Plains throughout the rest of the week, which will help some drought-stricken areas. Less rainfall is expected across Texas and combined with the heat that is expected this week, some areas could see soil moisture depleted. Near- to below-normal temperatures are expected across the Central Plains this week. Conditions are mostly favorable for much of the region despite the continued drought, though rain may disrupt the wheat harvest.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH COOLER AIR FOR NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Fronts moving through this week will bring more scattered precipitation, but not all areas will likely see rain. Near- to below-normal temperatures are expected to reduce stress on developing crops.

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL DELTA INTO THE END OF THE WEEK

Systems will develop along frontal boundaries throughout the rest of this week, offering daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some pockets of heavy rain are possible across Illinois and Missouri over the next five days. The widespread rainfall will continue to benefit crop growth, but areas that receive heavy rain may need to watch for flooding.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL BUT WETTER IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Drier conditions north are favorable for the increasing safrinha corn harvest, but late-planted corn could still use another round of rain. Vegetative wheat could also use more rainfall. A system continues to develop across the area today into tomorrow that will help boost soil moisture. Heavy rain is even possible across Rio Grande Do Sul. Later-planted corn may benefit from the rain but this could also disrupt the ongoing harvest.

SPOTTY SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ARGENTINA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK

Soil moisture is still sub-optimal in Argentina. Above-normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday and allow for good growth for those with adequate moisture. A developing system today into tomorrow will provide scattered showers to help replenish some soil moisture. Cold temperatures will fill in behind the system and could cause some areas of frost to develop this weekend as low temperatures will approach freezing.

WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST CHINA

Daily chances for rain are likely across northeast China throughout the rest of this week as multiple disturbances are forecast to pass through the area. Some additional showers may spread down into the North China Plain at times as well. That should be favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

Teresa Deutchman can be reached at teresa.deutchman@dtn.com

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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