Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Widespread drought reduction and additional rain for the Plains, plus a drier Brazil, are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MORE SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

A front will move through the Midwest with scattered showers and thunderstorms through Saturday, though mostly light. Temperatures are up and down, but will trend warm again next week. Conditions are mostly favorable for early development, though there are some wet pockets that could use some dry weather to continue planting.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front moving through over the next few days will bring additional showers to much of the Central and Southern Plains, which may further improve soil moisture, including some of the deepest drought areas in the southwest. This comes on the heels of widespread drought reduction in the region last week. With additional showers being possible next week as well, the pattern remains favorable for early crop development and forages, and further drought reduction.

SHOWERS AGAIN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK

A front brought some showers through the Northern Plains Wednesday, but amounts have been light. A shot of colder air is also going through, but will only last a day or so. Wetter areas have had a chance to dry out and that continues through the weekend. Delays to planting in North Dakota may have been made up this week. More showers may be possible next week, an overall favorable pattern for reducing the remaining drought and supporting crop establishment.

DELTA SHOWERS DECREASING

Scattered showers continue to be possible in the Delta through Saturday. Wetter soils in the region are mostly favorable for developing crops. Drier conditions are likely to set in by the weekend and continue next week.

WARM, THEN SHOWERY FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A front that moved through the Canadian Prairies on Wednesday produced some showers, mostly in Manitoba, and most areas were missed. The drop in temperatures that follows will be short-lived. Conditions are mostly favorable for continued planting, though more showers are needed across the region's drought, which is fairly widespread. Models are supporting more rainfall for next week, though are uncertain how that will manifest and how widespread the rain might be.

DRY FOR BRAZILIAN CORN

A front will move into southern Brazil this weekend and may produce some showers, but additional rainfall would be helpful for reproductive to filling safrinha corn. Showers are likely to stay south of the primary safrinha corn areas. Soil moisture is much improved for winter wheat planting and establishment. Temperatures remain warm with no risk of frost.

SHOWERS RETURNING TO ARGENTINA

A front brought needed rainfall to southern Argentina's growing areas Wednesday and continue with showers over the next couple of days farther north. The pattern will favor additional fronts moving through to end May. Precipitation coverage and intensity is uncertain, however. Drier conditions are in place for winter wheat planting and establishment and rainfall is desperately needed.

GOOD WEATHER FOR MOST OF EUROPE

A cutoff low will continue to meander around the Mediterranean the next week, which should continue showers around the sea and occasionally other places as well. That includes over drought-stricken Spain, though coverage and intensity is not enough to break the drought. Overall, favorable conditions continue for most of the continent, though there are some limited areas of dryness and flooding.

GOOD WEATHER FOR THE BLACK SEA

An upper-low over the Mediterranean and a couple of fronts dipping into the region may provide at least some showers for the Black Sea region into next week. Soil moisture and warm temperatures are mostly favorable for crop development.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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