Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Mild temperatures and more rain for the U.S. over some of the drought areas, and a drier Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

WARM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

A system in the Plains will bring more widespread showers to the Midwest through the weekend and may be significant for the drier areas in the west. Most areas yet to plant have had an opportunity to get into the fields this week, while some of these showers will be beneficial. Showers are disorganized, however, which will leave some areas dry. After this weekend, the region will dry out for next week. Temperatures will be warm until a front drops south through the region early next week, with cooler readings likely for eastern areas.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS GETTING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

Heavy rain fell in western areas of the Central and Southern Plains Wednesday and waves of showers will continue to develop through the weekend. Where they hit, they will be heavy, helping ease drought in some of the driest areas of the country. Heavier rain is forecast across the south this weekend before it gets drier next week. Texas may see showers continuing, however.

WARM AND SHOWERY FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures continue to be near or above normal in the Northern Plains for the next week, favoring planting. Scattered showers will continue in waves through the weekend and could be heavy in spots, offering an increase in soil moisture for some of the dry areas.

DELTA GETTING MORE RAINFALL

Wetter soils in the Delta are mostly favorable for developing crops. Disorganized areas of showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday, which may or may not hit most areas. Either way, conditions continue to be mostly favorable for crops in the ground.

MILD TEMPERATURES IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Mild temperatures continue to favor planting progress in the Canadian Prairies. Disorganized showers have been occurring throughout the week. They have not been all that widespread but have dropped some significant rain where they have hit. A system to the south will bring heavier showers to southeastern areas Friday and Saturday before the region goes drier for next week. Temperatures are forecast to stay mild even after a couple of weak fronts moving through next week. Some light showers may be possible with those fronts, but more is needed.

DRY FOR BRAZILIAN CORN

Dry conditions are expected in Brazil for the next week but are not abnormal for this time of year. Recent rains have only clipped southern safrinha corn areas while winter wheat areas have gotten a nice boost to soil moisture. Safrinha corn areas are starting to see soil moisture decline and would prefer more rain, though chances for that are low. Temperatures remain warm with no risk of frost.

UNFAVORABLE DRYNESS IN ARGENTINA

It remains dry in Argentina, unfavorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. More rain is needed. However, it should remain drier for the next week. A front may go through with showers late next week with scattered showers. Models are inconsistent with the amount of rain being forecast.

GOOD WEATHER FOR MOST OF EUROPE, SPAIN STILL DRY

Scattered showers will continue across Europe for the next week as an upper-level low meanders about the continent. Some parts of Spain may also see some showers, but the country continues to be very dry and in drought. Otherwise, good weather conditions continue for most crops. If anything, it may be a little too wet in some areas, and flooding is more of an issue than dryness.

QUIET IN THE BLACK SEA

Below-normal temperatures in the Black Sea region are moderating over the next few days. The run of good showers has taken a break, but soil moisture remains favorable for both wheat and newly planted corn. Scattered showers are forecast to return next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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