Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Slow snowmelt in the Northern Plains, cold air continuing in the Corn Belt, and rain in the southwestern Plains are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MIDWEST STAYING COLDER

A system continued through the Midwest this weekend with scattered showers and a rush of colder air. That produced some frosts and freezes on Sunday and Monday mornings. Additional frosts continue this week. The cold air may cause damage to more-developed wheat and emergent corn and soybeans. Showers will be limited for most of the week, but a system will come through late week and weekend with widespread showers, mostly in the form of rain. Cooler temperatures will generally be in place into early May, unfavorable for planting and somewhat dangerous for additional frosts.

RAIN COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some showers went through the Southern Plains over the weekend with a small disturbance but missed most of the drought areas. Cold temperatures made for widespread frosts and freezes across a good portion of the region outside of eastern Oklahoma and most of Texas, which may have been damaging for wheat. A system will bring more widespread showers to the drought areas over the next few days and could be substantial in some areas. That will help to reduce the impact of the drought but will not make much of a dent in it. Additional showers could be possible late this week with another system. Wheat may not benefit from the rain too much due to poor conditions, but the increased soil moisture would favor corn and soybean planting and establishment.

SUSTAINED COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Below-normal temperatures continue in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies for the next week but will still be warm enough to continue melting the snowpack in the region. A system moving through later this week will bring in scattered showers, mostly in the form of rain despite the cooler temperatures. Rain should not be heavy enough to increase pressure on the ongoing flooding across the Red River by too much, but the colder temperatures will slow the drying process, limiting fieldwork and planting.

WETTER CONDITIONS IN THE DELTA

A front moved through the Delta with widespread precipitation on Friday and more are expected with a couple of systems this week. Many areas of the region are wet, limiting spring planting. Areas that have been able to plant will find good conditions for germination and early growth, though temperatures will be on the cooler end of normal through the end of the month. Northern areas may catch a frost as well.

QUIETER IN BRAZIL

Isolated showers continued over northern Brazil but many were dry over the weekend. A system will move through southern areas with some showers this week while northern areas catch the end of isolated wet season showers at times. Overall, corn conditions are good for the time-being, with a hopeful eye toward additional rain for the next couple of weeks.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

A system brought some showers to northern Argentina Sunday and will continue there Monday. Most of the agricultural areas missed out and conditions are favorable for harvesting a severely damaged crop. Winter wheat areas are in need of more moisture as the crop will start to be planted in the next week or two.

GOOD WEATHER FOR MOST OF EUROPE

A system brought scattered showers through western Europe over the weekend that included drought areas in Spain, though they amounted to very little. That system will spread showers through most of the continent over the next couple of days and be followed by another system for late week that may do something similar. This could mean more showers for drought areas in Spain, but probabilities are not high for anything substantial.

FAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE BLACK SEA

A system brought widespread precipitation through the Black Sea region over the weekend. More showers are expected with another system that will slowly move through this week. Some chilly air may move into Ukraine this weekend, but conditions continue to be mostly favorable for winter wheat development and corn planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.