Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A change in the pattern for next week, snowmelt in the Northern Plains, and rains in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

QUIETER, WARMER MIDWEST NEXT WEEK

A strong storm has left the Midwest and it will be much quieter going through next week with only slight chances for showers in isolated areas. Well-above-normal temperatures are also forecast for next week, getting more of the northern snowpack melted, and allowing producers to get out into their fields if not too wet.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STAYING DRIER

A cold front continues to be hung up in Texas through Saturday with scattered showers. A weak front and disturbance will bring isolated showers through the Central and Southern Plains early next week, but most areas will stay dry. The best chance for precipitation is later next week. Dryness and drought continue to have a huge impact on wheat development and many producers will likely wait for rain to get going on planting.

SNOWPACK MELTING IN NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The blizzard has ended in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. It brought a fresh 8 to 12 inches of snow to a good chunk of the region but underperformed the forecast. Though cold Thursday, temperatures will be rising significantly through the weekend and into next week, with flooding expected to occur as the snowpack begins to melt. Seasonably cooler temperatures will arrive by later next week, which may contain some of the melting, but will set up to bring more rain showers to the area instead.

CONTINUED PRECIPITATION IN THE DELTA

A front is stalled in the Delta, continuing showers through Saturday, especially across the south. Wet soils are keeping fieldwork and planting slow. Quieter weather next week will help soils to drain and allow for more fieldwork.

BRIEF INCREASE IN SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue to be isolated through central Brazil through April, though may be enhanced through the weekend with a front moving through. Still, precipitation is forecast to be below normal, leaving some concern for enough available soil moisture for developing safrinha corn. Systems occasionally moving through the south may be able to keep soil moisture in a good position there for the rest of the month. Overall conditions for corn thus far are good, but the question is: For how long?

QUIETER CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA

Despite better weather in the last couple of weeks, corn and soybean conditions in Argentina continue to be poor as the rains have been too late to have a positive impact on yield potential. The rains have been able to stabilize crop conditions, but reports of poor-quality corn and soybeans are abundant out of the country. A stronger cold front may move through next week, which would bring more showers and lower temperatures as harvest progress starts to pick up.

COLDER TEMPERATURES EASING IN EUROPE

Colder air this week brought widespread frosty mornings to a lot of Europe but should not have caused much damage. Areas of mixed rain and snow will continue through the weekend. Spain and Italy continue to be drier and need more precipitation. A couple of fronts will move through with scattered showers next week, but not much for the southwest. Other areas of the continent are finding overall favorable conditions.

GOOD GROWING CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA

Periods of showers will continue to move through the Black Sea region for the next week, with mild temperatures. Overall, growing conditions are mostly favorable across the region.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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