Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Active weather in the U.S. and dwindling rains in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MIDWEST STAYING ACTIVE

A string of systems will continue to push a cold front through the Midwest through Saturday, bringing widespread precipitation through the region yet again. Another may come through Sunday and Monday as well. A wet end to March is likely to lead to some delays for early fieldwork heading into April. Temperatures will be waffling heading into the new month as well.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES

A cold front continues to be slowly pushed southward through the Central and Southern Plains over the next few days by a couple of storm systems. These systems will produce scattered precipitation across the region with the strongest storm in the series occurring Thursday into Friday, which has the best chance at bringing precipitation to the southwestern drought areas. There may be another over the weekend that could do so as well, but chances are low for meaningful precipitation outside of Kansas and Colorado's winter wheat areas.

NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER

Temperatures remain below normal in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks, requiring higher inputs than normal for livestock, and limiting snow melt. The main storm track will be to the south, with only isolated showers going into next week.

FIELDWORK SLOW FOR WET DELTA

A series of storms will push a cold front through the Delta this week with several chances for additional precipitation that will keep area rivers high and fieldwork slow. Additional showers are possible Sunday into Monday as well.

WET SEASON RAINS DIMINISHING IN BRAZIL

Scattered showers are continuing over the interior of Brazil on Wednesday and Thursday, but will become much more isolated moving forward as the wet season starts to draw to an end fairly early. The dryness will help to increase the remaining safrinha corn planting. Soil moisture is good for the corn in the ground for now. But the coming dryness is not a good outlook if that continues into April without returning.

RAIN TOO LATE IN ARGENTINA

A front continues to bring scattered showers, sometimes heavy, to northern Argentina over the next several days. Rain this week is likely too late for much of the damaged corn and soybean crops. However, stabilization will likely occur if the showers are as heavy as forecast. Temperatures will remain above normal until a cold front moves through later next week.

MOST OF EUROPE IN GOOD SHAPE

A more active weather pattern is bringing showers to the driest areas of France over the next week or longer, along with most of the rest of the Europe outside of Spain and Italy, which will have much lower chances for precipitation. The increased moisture in France will help to turn around winter wheat prospects, though dryness in Spain and Italy will not be favorable.

GOOD GROWING CONDITIONS FOR WAR-TORN BLACK SEA

Dry and warm conditions will continue in the Black Sea region for most of this week before a front brings more showers through this weekend and into next week. Soil moisture is mostly good in the region and the warmth will help winter wheat to develop. The wheat crop is in good shape overall where not affected by war.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.