DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There are several troughs across the U.S. with a larger one approaching the West Coast. The West Coast trough will move east through the country later this week and weekend and another will closely follow behind it over the weekend and into next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The pattern remains active with more troughs moving through the country next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be below normal across the West and North and above normal in the South and East. Cooler temperatures will follow behind a system over the weekend into next week but may rise again east of the Rockies ahead of the next system moving into the West in the middle of next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...79 AT MECCA, CA, WINTERHAVEN, CA, BARD, CA, EL CENTRO, CA, AND OCHOPEE, FL

LOW MON...13 BELOW ZERO AT SEAGULL LAKE, MN 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT MONDAY...MIAMI BEACH, FL 0.37 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There are several troughs across the U.S. with a larger one approaching the West Coast. The West Coast trough will move east through the country later this week and weekend and another will closely follow behind it over the weekend and into next week with yet another to move into the West next week as well.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be below normal across the West and North and above normal in the South and East. Cooler temperatures will follow behind a system over the weekend into next week but may rise again east of the Rockies ahead of the next system moving into the West in the middle of next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Temperatures remain below normal for the next couple of weeks, requiring higher inputs than normal for livestock, and limiting snow melt. A system moves through on Tuesday with scattered precipitation and some areas of moderate snow in the northeast, but the rest of the week is likely dry as systems pass by to the south.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Cold temperatures over the weekend may have caused frost damage on more advanced wheat across the far south.

Temperatures are higher for the next couple of days, but will be squashed later this week as a cold front is slowly pushed southward through the region by a few storm systems. These systems will produce scattered precipitation across the region with the strongest storm in the series occurring Thursday into Friday which has the best chance at bringing precipitation to the southwestern drought areas. There may be another over the weekend that could do so as well, but chances are low for meaningful precipitation outside of Kansas and Colorado's winter wheat areas.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A string of systems will push a cold front through the region this week, bringing widespread precipitation through the region yet again. Another may come through this weekend into early next week. A wet end to March is likely to lead to some delays for early fieldwork heading into April.

Temperatures will be waffling to end the month as well.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A series of storms will push a cold front through the region this week with several chances for additional precipitation that will keep area rivers high and fieldwork slow.

BRAZIL (CORN): Scattered showers are continuing over the interior of Brazil this week but will be spottier across southern and eastern areas. That will help to increase the remaining safrinha corn planting. Soil moisture is good for the corn in the ground. Showers will decrease later this week over central areas as the wet season is showing signs of slowing down early, not a good outlook if that continues over the next few weeks as well.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front continues to bring scattered showers, sometimes heavy, to central areas early this week and then to northern areas later in the week. Rain is likely too late for much of the damaged corn and soybean crops. However, stabilization will likely occur if the showers are as heavy as forecast. Temperatures will remain above normal until a cold front moves through next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A more active weather pattern is bringing showers to the driest areas of France over the next week or longer, along with most of the rest of the continent outside of Spain and Italy, which will have much lower chances for precipitation. The increased moisture in France will help to turn around winter wheat prospects, though dryness in Spain and Italy will not be favorable.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Dry and warm conditions will continue for most of this week before a front brings more showers through the region this weekend and into next week. Soil moisture is mostly good in the region and the warmth will help winter wheat to develop this week. The wheat crop is in good shape overall where not affected by war.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/OILSEEDS): Precipitation continues to be limited in the main winter wheat and oilseed areas on the North China Plain as crops are breaking dormancy. Shower chances are low overall and focused more to the south and more will be needed soon.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal north and above normal south Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

East: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures variable Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

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