DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a broad ridge across North America with a trough in the Four Corners and another trough in the North Pacific and Alaska. The Pacific trough will be the catalyst to send several pieces of energy through North America over the next week before it drops into the West next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

For the outlook period, the Pacific trough will move across the continent late next week, bringing in some briefly cold air to much of the country.

The U.S. and European models agree on the overall pattern, but have differences in how they treat each piece of energy moving through the country. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to above normal for much of the country with below normal temperatures in the Southeast. Warmth will build in the East next week while the West cools down significantly underneath the trough moving in. Two strong storm systems are expected next week, though models are trying to figure out how that will come together.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...93 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW MON...13 BELOW ZERO AT SEAGULL LAKE, MN AND BRIMSON, MN

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT MONDAY...JUNEAU, AK 0.62 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a broad ridge across North America with a trough in the Four Corners and another trough in the North Pacific and Alaska. The Pacific trough will be the catalyst to send several pieces of energy through North America over the next week before it drops into the West next week. It will move across the continent late next week. The pieces of energy will produce a few storm systems.

The U.S. and European models agree on the overall pattern but have differences in how they treat each piece of energy moving through the country. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near-to-above normal for much of the country with below-normal temperatures in the Southeast. Warmth will build in the East next week while the West cools down significantly underneath the trough moving in. Two strong storm systems are expected next week, though models are trying to figure out how that will come together.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Above-normal temperatures should stay in the region over the next week or so, reducing stress and feed requirements for livestock. Temperatures will be on a cooling trend again next week, which may be a significant drop. That may or may not come with a burst of precipitation.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): A low-pressure center will form along a front across the southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday where showers will be more significant. Some cooler air will move in behind this system to close out the week, but nothing significantly cold that would produce too much stress for livestock. Warmer air will quickly replace the cold again this weekend. A stronger storm is expected to develop in the region early next week that could produce some significant precipitation.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Warmth continues into next week. Though a system will bring widespread precipitation to the region Wednesday through Friday, including a band of light to moderate snow on the backside of it, temperatures behind this system will still be mild for this time of year.

DELTA (LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS): Though area rivers are full due to recent rainfall, a lack of precipitation farther north will send Mississippi River water levels down through this week and are forecast to continue next week as well. Some precipitation will be added this week, but is not forecast to have a significant enough of an effect to stop the drop in water levels.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers have returned to central and northern areas, where breaks in the heavy showers will be few and far between. Soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting remain behind schedule. If the delays are too great this week and continue through next week as they are forecast to do, corn runs the risk of running into its pollination stages as the wet season rains shut down -- unfavorable weather conditions for corn production. Southern areas continue to have issues with pronounced dryness, which continues this week as well.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): The country is in the midst of a dry stretch that lasts this week before showers move through again this weekend with a cold front. Some spotty showers may occur in a couple of spots this week, though rising temperatures will negate any precipitation that falls until the weekend.

The showers that come with the front are unlikely to have a significantly positive impact on soil moisture, though another front that follows it next week could be more substantial. Crops have had a boost in crop conditions the last couple of weeks, but the heat and dryness this week should have negative effects again.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A piece of energy is pushing southwest into Spain where showers will continue through Thursday. While below-normal temperatures are found across the region for the next few days, it should not be cold enough to produce widespread problems with winterkill. It should be drier for the majority of the continent until a front moves through next week. Overall, winter wheat is in a favorable situation, though France could use more rain and the crop remains vulnerable to a blast of cold air with somewhat limited snow cover.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers south Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday.

East: Scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, above to well above normal Monday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers southeast. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers southeast Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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