DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a large trough in the West and a ridge across the Southeast. The trough will send another piece of energy eastward over the next few days before itself moves into the middle of the continent by next week. The southern ridge will oppose it, setting up a storm track right through the U.S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

In the 6- to 10-day period, the main trough will shift eastward late next week but another trough should form out in the West, which should advance eastward next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but disagree with the timing and strength of systems moving through. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be well-below normal across the north and well-above normal in the south. The pattern is forecast to largely hold next week until a system pushes through late week with additional showers that should bring some of the colder air southward.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...85 AT MARATHON, FL AND OCHOPEE, FL

LOW THU...12 BELOW ZERO AT GRANTSBURG, WI

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT THURSDAY...SAN FRANCISCO, CA 0.71 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a large trough in the West and a ridge across the Southeast. The trough will send another piece of energy eastward over the next few days before it moves into the middle of the continent by next week. The southern ridge will oppose it, setting up a storm track right through the U.S. The main trough will shift eastward late next week but another trough should form out in the West, which should advance eastward next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar but disagree with the timing and strength of systems moving through. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be well below normal across the north and well above normal in the south. The pattern is forecast to largely hold next week until a system pushes through late week with additional showers that should bring some of the colder air southward.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Bursts of cold air are coming down from Canada over the next couple of weeks. A system is bringing a round of snow through the region Friday, which may be moderate in spots. Some occasional light snow is forecast through most of next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Temperatures continue to fluctuate wildly for the next week very warm air will fall again behind a front on Friday. Strong winds are accompanying both sides of the front. Another pop up and down will come through over the following few days as another cold front moves through early next week. That front will likely settle down into Texas with some showers for southern areas next week. Drought areas in the west are likely to be missed, however.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Warmer temperatures are spreading through the region Friday only to be put back down with another front moving through.

The front should produce some light precipitation. Another system will move through early next week as a clipper system with more scattered showers.

DELTA (LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS): The region is staying active over the next ten days with several fronts moving through. Scattered showers accompany the fronts, but are also falling farther north, which will add water to the river system. A boost in water levels is forecast this weekend and next week with levels bouncing around as precipitation continues to add to the system.

Widespread improvements are not anticipated, however, as much of the watershed still remains in drought.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers will continue in central and northern Brazil as is typical for this time of year. A front is moving into southern Brazil on Friday and will stall, allowing for more precipitation to accumulate going into next week, which would reverse the recent trend of below-normal rainfall at a crucial time for full-season corn that is nearing pollination. It will be more brief for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, however, and showers go more isolated for this part of the region by the middle of next week.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Isolated showers were pushed out by a cold front on Thursday. Drier conditions follow going into next week along with a return of heat. Showers may return in isolated fashion later next week. Dryness and drought continue to be concerns for all crops until showers become more consistent.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Showers have been a bit more sporadic this week, but will be around through the weekend. The pattern looks a bit more active next week. For southern areas, the rains will be more important as dormancy is starting farther north.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Wheat is going dormant in generally good condition.

Prospects are high for a good crop depending on how much was able to be planted this fall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/SORGHUM/COTTON): Recent heavy rains in the east have caused quality concerns for winter wheat and canola over the winter and spring but have also led to forecasts for record yields. Some showers moved through Queensland in a couple of shots this week, but most areas have been drier, helping to reduce soil moisture and improve quality.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Snow north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, near to below Saturday-Sunday, below normal north and above normal south Monday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers Friday night-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday, south Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers south Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal north and above normal south Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal north and near to above normal south Tuesday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday, north Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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