Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Rising temperatures in the Plains and weekend frosts in Argentina are the short-term weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MIDWEST MOSTLY DRYING OUT

A front moving through the Midwest over the weekend will spin off through Michigan on Monday before pushing east on Tuesday. Scattered showers have been the result across much of the region, providing some late relief for drier areas looking to fill some soybeans, but likely had no effect on corn. Soil moisture may have improved prior to winter wheat planting in some limited areas as well. After a couple of cooler days, temperatures will rise well above normal going into the weekend, which should help to push crops toward maturity by the end of the month. Scattered showers will be possible over northwestern areas later this week into next week while the southeast stays much drier.

HOT, MOSTLY DRY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front brought scattered showers to the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, but mostly in Nebraska. Drier areas in the southwestern Plains saw very little and drought continues to have a strong hold on the region while producers are thinking about winter wheat planting. Pieces of energy will move through the Northern Plains this week but may be enough to produce some limited areas of rain, mostly in Nebraska. The larger wheat areas and pastures are not forecast to see much coverage or intensity while temperatures rise well above normal.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

Dry and cool conditions occurred in the Northern Plains over the weekend, favoring harvest activities. A western trough will send pieces of energy through the region Wednesday through next week, resulting in periods of showers. Rains may have some late benefit to filling soybeans, but not likely for corn. Temperatures may waffle but be mostly above normal until possibly the middle of next week when a cooler shot may occur.

DRY IN THE DELTA

Scattered showers moved through the Delta over the weekend but were mostly light. Dry conditions and rising temperatures over the next week should help crops reach maturity and improve quality for some of the wetter areas.

SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES HARVEST

Fairly good harvest conditions over the last week or two in the Canadian Prairies are going to turn to a more active pattern this week as periods of isolated to scattered showers move through. Delays to harvest may occur through next week.

BENEFICIAL RAINS IN BRAZIL

A stalled front will continue to produce periods of showers and thunderstorms across southern Brazil this week, but not in Rio Grande do Sul, which will help with wheat harvest. Some showers may make it into central Brazil this week but should not be the start of the wet season, which typically comes at the end of the month.

FROSTS DAMAGING ARGENTINA WHEAT

Cold air produced widespread frosts and freezes in Argentina over the weekend, which may have damaged vulnerable wheat. Dryness this week is also unfavorable as soil moisture is limited prior to the first round of corn planting, which is going to see some delays this year. Showers may come at the end of the week, which would help, but may again be followed by a round of cold air.

MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR BLACK SEA WHEAT PLANTING

Moderate to heavy rain started to move into the Black Sea region over the weekend, boosting soil moisture in Ukraine for winter wheat planting. The storm system will expand the good rains into western Russia early this week. Another system will bring more rains to the region later this week and weekend but come with a shot of cold air as well, which may result in frosts in some northern areas. If it does, that would put an end to any corn or sunflowers that are still filling, and limit winter wheat establishment some.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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