Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A cooldown for the Plains and some chance for more precipitation are the short-term weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MIDWEST COOLER WITH SPOTTY RAINS

Cooler temperatures continue in the eastern Midwest, but western areas will warm up a bit for a couple of days. Scattered showers in Minnesota and Wisconsin will spread to eastern areas over the weekend. Any warmth in the west will become more seasonable next week as an upper-level trough sits over the region. This may bring some additional showers, but models are not very optimistic about anything widespread or heavy except maybe in Missouri.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COOLER AND WETTER NEXT WEEK

Temperatures in the Central and Southern Plains will continue to be hot through the weekend. A front looks to bring an extended period of cooler temperatures and potential for moderate rainfall next week, which would reduce stress for filling crops.

LIMITED RAIN IN NORTHERN PLAINS

There is another chance for some isolated showers in the Northern Plains over the weekend into next week with a couple of small disturbances. These disturbances will keep temperatures cooler across the Dakotas next week while Montana will continue to be hot under the ridge. Soil moisture is starting to run low in a lot of areas, making these rain chances more important for filling corn and soybeans. Showers may disrupt wheat harvest in limited areas.

EASING DROUGHT IN DELTA

A front brought scattered showers and more seasonable temperatures to the region this week, easing drought stress. More rain and seasonable temperatures will move through next week, helping to keep stress lower as well.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST STAYING HOT

Heat in the Pacific Northwest looks to continue for the next couple of weeks. Some monsoon showers may come up from the south at times, but overall, the region will be drier as well. Stress continues to mount for the end of the growing season for spring wheat while conditions are more favorable for winter wheat harvest.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A couple of systems are moving through the Canadian Prairies over the next week, bringing spotty precipitation. Southwestern areas could use more precipitation, but time is running out for rain to be helpful as harvest starts up.

COLD WITH FROSTS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

Another front will move through southern Brazil next week, keeping showers active for reproductive wheat but also bringing in much cooler temperatures. There is a risk of frost behind the front next week, which could be damaging should it occur in any widespread fashion. Showers may also get into central Brazil states, which would welcome any rainfall in advance of soybean planting that starts next month.

ARGENTINA WHEAT STILL DRY

A few showers may move through wheat areas this weekend, but amounts should be very light. That is followed by more cold air, which may produce frosts and continue poor conditions for wheat establishment and development.

HEAT CONTINUES IN THE BLACK SEA, RAIN FOR UKRAINE

Above-normal temperatures will continue in the Black Sea region into next week, especially in Russia. Some showers remain in Ukraine and are forecast to continue into next week while western Russia stays dry until at least late next week. Soil moisture in the region is good overall and the heat will help to accelerate corn and sunflower filling. There could be some stresses in Russia however, where there are a few more dry pockets.

HEATWAVE IN EUROPE EXPANDING NEXT WEEK

Heat across much of Europe the last several weeks has caused widespread stress and damage to summer crops. An upper-level system continues in eastern areas of the continent, keeping temperatures a bit cooler and bring scattered showers through the weekend. The heat is forecast to shift eastward next week while the west gets a much-needed break. Some showers are forecast in western areas next week and models are starting to trend toward heavier showers, which would help ease the stress, though damage has already been done.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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