Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A cooldown for the Plains and some chance for more precipitation are the short-term weather factors driving the market Thursday.

MIDWEST COOLER WITH SPOTTY RAINS

Another cold front is moving through the Midwest over the next couple of days, reinforcing the cooler temperatures through the weekend in the east, but western areas will warm up a bit. The front will also cause chances of rain in Minnesota and possibly Iowa Thursday and Friday, then spread to eastern areas over the weekend. Any warmth in the west will become more seasonable next week as an upper-level trough sits over the region. This may bring some additional showers, but models are not very optimistic about anything widespread or heavy.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS HOT, COOLER NEXT WEEK

Temperatures in the Central and Southern Plains are rising again and will continue to be hot through the weekend. A front looks to bring an extended period of cooler temperatures and moderate rainfall next week, which would reduce stress for filling crops.

LIMITED RAIN IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Heat building into the Northern Plains is bumping up against a front in the Dakotas and may cause a band of moderate to heavy rain in North Dakota on Thursday into early Friday. There is another chance for some isolated showers over the weekend into next week as well. Soil moisture is starting to run low in a lot of areas, making these rain chances more important for filling corn and soybeans. Showers may disrupt wheat harvest in limited areas.

FRONT PRODUCING SHOWERS FOR DELTA

A front is bringing scattered showers and more seasonable temperatures to the Delta over the next couple of days. Crops in this area are more developed and have been dealing with heat stress all summer. More rain and seasonable temperatures will move through next week, helping to keep stress lower.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST STAYING HOT

Heat in the Pacific Northwest looks to continue for the next couple of weeks. Some monsoon showers may come up from the south at times, but overall the region will be drier as well. Stress continues to mount for the end of the growing season for spring wheat while conditions are more favorable for winter wheat harvest.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A couple of systems are moving through the Canadian Prairies over the next week, bringing spotty precipitation. Southwestern areas could use more precipitation, but time is running out for rain to be helpful as harvest starts up.

COLD WITH FROSTS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

Another front will move through southern Brazil next week, keeping showers active for reproductive wheat but also bringing in much cooler temperatures. There was a risk of frost Thursday morning, and more frost may be possible behind the front next week as well, which could be damaging. Showers may also get into central Brazil states, which would welcome any rainfall in advance of soybean planting that starts next month.

ARGENTINA WHEAT STILL DRY

Dry weather continues in Argentina the rest of this week. A few showers may move through wheat areas this weekend but looks to be very light. That is followed by more cold air, which may produce frosts and continue poor conditions for wheat establishment and development.

HEAT BUILDING FOR THE BLACK SEA, RAIN FOR UKRAINE

Above-normal temperatures have moved into the Black Sea region and will build going into next week, especially in Russia. Some showers remain in Ukraine and are forecast to continue into next week while western Russia stays dry until at least late next week. Soil moisture in the region is good overall and the heat will help accelerate corn and sunflower filling. There could be some stresses in Russia, however, where there are a few more dry pockets.

HEATWAVE IN EUROPE CONTINUES

Heat across much of Europe the last several weeks has caused widespread stress and damage to summer crops. An upper-level system is forming off the tail end of a cold front in eastern areas of the continent. This will keep temperatures a bit cooler and bring scattered showers through the weekend. But across the west, stress will continue through the weekend. The heat is forecast to spread eastward next week as the entire continent may be dealing with the heat. Some showers are forecast in western areas next week, but models have been inconsistent in how they develop.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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