DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...108 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW TUE...17 AT VERNAL UT AND DANIEL WY

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT TUESDAY...BROWNSVILLE TX 4.61 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge on both coasts with a trough across the Plains. Another trough is located over the North Pacific. All features will move eastward over the next few days. The western ridge will get sticky in the East while the North Pacific trough builds into the West over the weekend. The ridge will prevent the trough from reaching too far eastward until late next week. Another trough will move into the West by late next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the overall pattern. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures Monday will be above normal across the Central and East and near to below normal in the West. The cooler temperatures will shift eastward into the Plains by the end of next week. A system will move along a frontal boundary across the Plains and western Midwest early to mid-next week. A front will get left behind in the area that should remain active. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic will be pulled into the country in the latter half of next week with spotty showers south of the front.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drier weather throughout the remainder of the week may be enough to get planters rolling a little faster in North Dakota and the surrounding areas that have been too wet. But the window is short as a system moves in this weekend with periods of scattered showers going into next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Widespread heavy showers have fallen across the region this week and continue over eastern areas on Wednesday. Some flooding has occurred in spots. Another front and system should bring more showers through northern areas over the weekend and into next week. Wheat is likely too late to be able to use much of the moisture and the showers will only stabilize conditions at this point. But increases in moisture will benefit summer crops and pastures more.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system will bring more showers through the region through Friday with heavier rain and some severe weather. A system will move into the Northern Plains and western Midwest this weekend. The front to the system will stall around Minnesota and Iowa going into next week.

Periods of showers will continue there while areas to the east will be much drier for several days before the front finally pushes through late next week.

That will open up another dry window for more fieldwork across eastern areas.

Meanwhile, the rainfall that comes through Friday should be good for seed already in the ground.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Scattered showers that moved in on Tuesday continue on Wednesday. A longer break will develop afterward, which may extend into June.

Recent showers are benefiting seed in the ground, but some upcoming dryness could cause some stress if it lasts too long.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): The region remains drier for the next couple of days with rising temperatures. But another trough will move through the region Friday into next week with more showers and cooler temperatures again. Showers will benefit wheat, especially where dryness and drought remain concerns, but the cooler temperatures coming up will keep growth slower.

BRAZIL (CORN): It remains dry across central Brazil and continues to negatively affect corn. A cold front will move into southern states today and Thursday and stall out going into next week, bringing widespread showers to benefit pollinating to filling corn. The front is not expected to bring showers to central states.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): A cold front will continue to push north by Thursday, bringing some showers to wheat areas, though amounts have been light.

Wheat needs more showers for good germination and early growth but will find cold temperatures instead, keeping both slow and uneven.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent dryness in eastern areas is benefiting soil draining. Some spotty showers may move across the region through Thursday but another system is likely to bring more widespread moderate showers Friday into next week. Western areas will welcome it but eastern areas will not. Some frosts may occur behind the system as well.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Heat and dryness last week from Spain to Germany likely produced some damage to winter wheat and possibly early corn as well.

While cooler, the region stays fairly dry through the weekend. Periods of showers and better growing conditions will continue over eastern areas into next week. A storm system will bring more scattered showers to western areas next week, which will help those drier areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Colder temperatures and periods of showers will continue across the region through the weekend. Temperatures will rise next week and showers will become more isolated or absent. Soil moisture in the region is adequate, though there are some dry spots here and there throughout the region, mostly in parts of Ukraine and the Volga Valley of Russia.

Temperatures rising next week will promote growth for areas of good soil moisture, but could stress those that are in need of some more rainfall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Soil moisture continues to be excellent for most areas of the country. Some periods of showers will continue throughout the weekend and into next week as well, with mostly favorable conditions.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers north Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

East: Scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Wednesday, near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered heavy showers. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers east Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday.

Isolated showers north Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday, mostly north. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday.

Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, below normal Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday.


John Baranick