Commodities Market Impact Weather

Another Wet Week Ahead

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More planting delays in the U.S. and showers moving into southern Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Monday.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CAUSING SOME PLANTING DELAYS FOR MIDWEST

A front continued to move through the Midwest over the weekend, bringing scattered showers to the southeastern half of the region and likely caused some planting delays. A system will bring more showers through the region Tuesday through Thursday with heavier rain and some severe weather in some areas causing more delays. That is followed by another system this weekend into next week with even more showers and delays. The seed already in the ground will benefit, along with winter wheat, however.

EARLY WEEK SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers fell over eastern areas of the Southern Plains over the weekend, and moderate to heavy rain and snow fell in Colorado as well. The region stays active with widespread showers Monday and Tuesday. Another front and system should bring more showers through northern areas over the weekend and into next week. Wheat is having a tough time for much of the region and the showers will only stabilize conditions at this point. But increases in moisture will benefit corn, soybeans, and pastures more.

A LITTLE DRIER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Cold air brought isolated showers to the Pacific Northwest over the weekend. The region will be drier this week with rising temperatures. But another trough will move through the region Friday into next week with more showers and cooler temperatures again. Showers will benefit wheat, especially where dryness and drought remain concerns, but the cooler temperatures coming up will keep growth slower.

BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYNESS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Drier weather was noted over the weekend in the Northern Plains with just some very isolated light showers in spots. It was also cold with temperatures falling below freezing for the majority of the region. Some drying may have occurred and been enough to allow for some planting progress, but probably not much for North Dakota. Another system will bring more showers Monday and a system will bring more over the weekend and possibly next week. The planting process is likely to remain slow, though some areas are likely to see enough drying to get out and plant.

SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE DELTA

Scattered showers and falling temperatures moved through the Delta with a cold front this weekend, benefiting seed already in the ground but causing more planting delays. Another system will bring more Tuesday and Wednesday. A longer break will develop afterward, which may extend into June. Planting is likely to resume pace, but we could see some dryness concerns moving forward.

RAINS RETURN TO SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Dry weather occurred in Brazil over the weekend with rising temperatures. Some frosts were reported in spots on Friday, but widespread crop damage was unlikely. It remains dry across central Brazil and continues to negatively affect corn. A cold front will move into southern states later this week and stall out going into next week, bringing widespread showers to benefit pollinating to filling corn. The front is not expected to bring showers to central states.

ARGENTINA WHEAT NEEDS MORE RAINFALL

Dry weather has promoted harvest of corn and soybeans in Argentina lately, along with planting of winter wheat. A cold front will slide through the country this week, bringing some showers to wheat areas, though amounts are likely to be light. Wheat needs more showers for good germination and early growth but will find cold temperatures instead, keeping both slow and uneven.

COOL AND SHOWERY IN BLACK SEA

Colder temperatures were noted in the Black Sea over the weekend, bringing some frosts to northern Russia. Isolated to scattered showers came with the cold though, keeping soils in fairly good shape for winter wheat. The cold will stick around through the week across Russia, but Ukraine will waffle in and out of above and below normal temperatures. Showers will be better across Ukraine later this week into next. But overall, conditions are fairly good across the region for both wheat and corn.

SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Cold and dry conditions were noted over the weekend in the Canadian Prairies. The dryness was nice for eastern areas that are trying to dry out to plant, but the cold was not with widespread frosts. Damage was unlikely because planting is so far behind schedule. Western areas might have had some damage, however. Some spotty showers may move across the region through Thursday, but another system is likely to bring more widespread moderate showers Friday through the weekend. Western areas will welcome it, but eastern areas will not. Some frosts may occur behind the system as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick