Commodities Market Impact Weather

Cold Air Building Through Early Next Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More planting delays, colder temperatures, and some areas of snow moving into the U.S. and Canadian Prairies, dry conditions and frost risks in Brazil, and a heatwave breaking in western Europe are the weather factors holding the market's attention Friday.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CAUSING SOME PLANTING DELAYS FOR MIDWEST

A front will continue to bring scattered showers to the Midwest through Sunday. Areas of severe weather and organized showers will slow planting progress in places. Colder temperatures will move through behind the system, being coldest across the west going into next week. Another storm system will move through around the middle of next week with more widespread showers and causes for planting delays.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front is moving through the Southern Plains with areas of showers through the weekend. Colder air moving in is creating several inches of snow in the Colorado foothills going into Saturday. A disturbance will bring more widespread showers to the region on Monday and Tuesday, but it is unclear if the showers will be enough for stabilizing damaged wheat.

A LITTLE DRIER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Another cold trough is moving through the Pacific Northwest. Showers from it are benefiting soil moisture but the cold temperatures are keeping growth slow for wheat. The showers will dry up over the weekend with a drier stretch through much of next week, which may bring some better sunshine and some warmer temperatures for better growth.

STRONG, COLD STORM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

A system brought widespread light to moderate rainfall across the Northern Plains on Thursday and continues Friday with a mix of rain and snow. There could be some accumulations in spots. Well below normal temperatures will be in place going into next week. Frosts will be possible, but the impact to agriculture will be quite low due to the delayed spring planting. Another couple of disturbances will bring scattered showers through the region next week. Planting progress continues to be slow, which looks to be the case for a while as the weather pattern remains active going into June.

SHOWERS INCREASING FOR DELTA

After a drier stretch this week, a stronger cold front will move through the Delta Saturday and Sunday. Organized showers and thunderstorms will also come with cooler temperatures, which will improve soil moisture and reduce stress in some of the somewhat drier areas across the south. More showers are anticipated next week as another system moves through, maintaining or improving soil moisture.

FROST POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Soil moisture continues to be critical in central Brazil for safrinha corn in the pollination and grain-fill stages of growth. Cold air may lead to some frosts across the southern areas through Saturday morning. If it does get cold enough, frost would create significant damage to the crop that is pollinating to filling.

ARGENTINA WHEAT NEEDS MORE RAINFALL

Dry weather has promoted harvest of corn and soybeans in Argentina, along with planting of winter wheat. Wheat has seen lower amounts of moisture lately and could use more for good germination. A front moving north through the country next week may provide some spotty showers, but northern areas of the country are likely to see better shower coverage.

COOL AND SHOWERY IN BLACK SEA

Colder temperatures continue in the Black Sea region through next week. They may be cold enough to produce some patchy frost at times, more likely over Russia. Frosts may have some impact on some advanced wheat, though growth has been slower this spring, which continues with the colder air. Periods of showers will come with the colder air and soil moisture may improve in spots.

HEATWAVE BREAKING IN WESTERN EUROPE

Temperatures well above normal in western Europe coincide with drier areas and wheat will feel some stress. The heat will end over the weekend with some showers, which may provide some relief. Over the east, soil moisture and temperatures are much better and crops are overall in good shape. Some better shower chances will occur over the continent next week with a couple of systems moving through. That includes across the northwest dry spots.

COLD AND WET FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The eastern half of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are too cold and wet for much planting progress to be made. Some recent showers across the western half of the region benefited soil moisture where drought still exists. Cold temperatures moving in behind a storm system will last into next week, continuing to keep soil drainage and subsequent planting slow in eastern areas. The cold will not be good for western areas either, where frosts would be a concern.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick