DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...108 AT SWEETWATER TX

LOW WED...28 AT CASCADE ID

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT WEDNESDAY...INDIANAPOLIS IN 0.64 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge across the southern half of the country, a disturbance in the Great Lakes, and a trough complex in the Pacific Northwest and Canadian Prairies. The main trough complex will spread into the middle of the country over the weekend before lifting northeast into Canada. A part of the trough will be left behind and deepen across the middle of the country early next week. It will push eastward then through late next week. Another trough will move into the West next weekend.

The U.S. and European models have shown a lot more similarities with the pattern for next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be below to well below normal across the Central U.S. and near to above normal on the both coasts.

Temperatures will rise next week with colder air moving back into the West next weekend. A disturbance will move from the Plains eastward with a somewhat organized storm system. But scattered showers will follow the system as it moves eastward through the week. A better chance of more widespread showers will come to the Southern Plains and areas eastward. Another disturbance will follow behind it, bringing showers across northern areas later in the week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stronger system will move through with more widespread and heavier showers Thursday and Friday, potentially being cold enough for accumulating snow in some areas. Well below normal temperatures will then be in place going into next week. Some northern frosts will be possible, but the impact to agriculture will be quite low due to the delayed planting. Another couple of disturbances will bring scattered showers through the region next week. Planting progress continues to be slow which looks to be the case for a while as the weather pattern remains active going into June.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Stronger storms and some better than expected rain fell across the southwestern areas last night, but still was not enough to give many areas good amounts. A front will move through with areas of showers through the weekend. Colder air moving in could create snow in the Colorado foothills on Saturday. A disturbance may bring more widespread showers to the region on Monday and Tuesday, but it is unclear if the showers will be enough for stabilizing wheat.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers will fall ahead of and along a front through Sunday. Areas of severe weather and organized showers will slow down planting progress in places. Colder temperatures will move through behind that stronger system, being coldest across the west going into next week. Another storm system will move through around the middle of next week with more widespread showers and causes for planting delays.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): After a drier stretch this week, a stronger cold front will move through Saturday and Sunday, bringing more organized showers through and also cooler temperatures, which will improve soil moisture and reduce stress in some of the somewhat drier areas across the south. More showers are anticipated next week as another system moves through, maintaining or improving soil moisture.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Another cold and wet trough is moving through this week. The showers are benefiting soil moisture but the cold temperatures are keeping growth slow for wheat. The showers will dry up over the weekend with a drier stretch through much of next week, which may bring some better sunshine and some warmer temperatures for better growth.

BRAZIL (CORN): Soil moisture continues to be critical in central Brazil for safrinha corn in the pollination and grain-fill stages of growth. Cold air may lead to some frosts across the southern areas through Saturday morning. If it does get cold enough, frost would create significant damage to the crop that is pollinating to filling.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Dry weather has promoted additional harvest of corn and soybeans, along with planting of winter wheat. Wheat has seen lower amounts of moisture lately and could use more for good germination. A front moving north through the country next week may provide some spotty showers, but northern areas of the country are likely to see better shower coverage.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CANOLA): The eastern half of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are too cold and wet for much planting progress to be done. Some recent showers across the western half of the region benefited soil moisture where drought still exists. A storm system moving through the region Thursday and Friday will bring more showers and could be cold enough to produce areas of accumulating snow. The colder air will last into next week, continuing to keep soil drainage and subsequent planting slow in eastern areas. The cold will not be good for western areas either, where frosts would be a concern.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Temperatures will remain well above normal for the rest of the week across western areas. This coincides with drier areas and wheat will feel some stress. Some periodic showers will move through late this week in the northwest. Over the east, soil moisture and temperatures are much better and crops are overall in much better shape. Some better shower chances will occur over the continent next week with a couple of systems moving through. That includes across the northwest dry spots.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Colder temperatures continue in the region through next week. They may be cold enough to produce some patchy frost at times, more likely over Russia. Frosts may have some impact on some advanced wheat, though growth has been slower this spring, which continues with the colder air. Periods of showers will come with the colder air and soil moisture may improve in spots.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Heavy rain moved through the eastern states of Australia last week, causing some flooding in spots which may have had an impact on winter wheat and canola planting and early establishment. But the increased soil moisture for most of the region should be good in the long run.

More wet weather is coming this weekend into next week. Showers do not look to produce widespread flooding, but may in spots.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures above normal Thursday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Friday, below to well below normal Saturday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Periods of isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal Thursday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Friday-Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

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