Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Showers creating more planting delays in the U.S., dry conditions and frost risks in Brazil, and a heatwave in western Europe are the weather factors holding the market's attention Tuesday.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CAUSING SOME PLANTING DELAYS FOR MIDWEST

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through the Midwest through Thursday and a stronger storm system will move through Thursday through Saturday. The late-week storm has the best chance to produce severe weather and organized showers. The rapid planting pace of last week should slow down due to weather this week. Colder temperatures will move through behind that stronger system -- coldest across the west going into next week.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

A couple of disturbances will bring showers through the Southern Plains on occasion this week. The driest areas in the southwest will have the least chance for showers, also with fairly hot temperatures until the weekend. Stress continues to be high for wheat and for corn and soybeans where the showers miss this week.

COLD AND WET IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A ridge in the area is only temporary as another cold and wet trough will move through this week. The showers are benefiting soil moisture, but the cold temperatures are keeping wheat growth very slow.

STRONG, COLD STORM COMING TO NORTHERN PLAINS

A disturbance will move through the Northern Plains with isolated to scattered showers today and Wednesday, but a stronger system will move through with more widespread and heavier showers Thursday and Friday. It may be cold enough for accumulating snow in some areas. Well below normal temperatures will then be in place going into next week. Some northern frosts will be possible, but the impact to agriculture will be quite low due to the delayed planting. Planting progress continues to be slow, which looks to be the case for a while yet.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR DELTA

Scattered showers went through the Delta over the weekend, slowing the planting pace a bit, though progress is ahead of average in the region. Some showers may go through at times during the week, but overall, the region will be in a drier stretch. A stronger cold front will move through Friday and Saturday, bringing more organized showers and also cooler temperatures, which will improve soil moisture and reduce stress in some of the somewhat drier areas across the south.

FROST POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A system went through Brazil over the weekend with widespread showers across the south. The cold front to the system brought isolated showers to central areas Sunday and Monday, but soil moisture continues to be critical for safrinha corn in the pollination and grain-fill stages of growth. Cold air that is moving in behind the front may lead to some frosts across the southern areas throughout the week, but clouds, wind, and some rainfall could keep temperatures up just enough. If it does get cold enough, it would create significant damage to the crop that is pollinating to filling.

DRYNESS NOT YET CONCERNING FOR ARGENTINA WHEAT

Dry weather in Argentina has promoted additional harvest of corn and soybeans, along with planting of winter wheat. Wheat has seen lower amounts of moisture lately and could use more for good germination. There may be some coming next week.

COOL AND SHOWERY IN BLACK SEA

Colder temperatures are moving through the Black Sea region this week. They may be cold enough to produce some patchy frost at times, more likely over Russia on Friday or Saturday. Still, that would not have much of an impact on corn, maybe on some advanced wheat, though growth has been slower this spring. Periods of showers will come with the colder air throughout the week. It is unlikely to increase soil moisture too much but may allow for some minor improvements in spots.

HEATWAVE CONTINUING IN WESTERN EUROPE

Some isolated showers moved through Europe over the weekend, but mostly missed the drier areas over the north and west. Temperatures rose well above normal over the western half of the continent, which will be the case all week long. Drier areas in the west and north will feel additional stress. Some periodic showers will move through late this week in the northwest, but showers will be more consistent over the east, where soil moisture is much better.

COLD AND WET FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The eastern half of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are too cold and wet for much planting progress to be done. Some recent showers across the western half of the region benefited soil moisture where drought still exists. Periods of showers will move through this week with a couple of systems. That will again be beneficial for western areas while the east will remain too wet. With cold temperatures following the system, that could also lead to some snow accumulation at least in Manitoba. The colder air will last into next week, continuing to keep soil drainage and subsequent planting slow in eastern areas. The cold will not be good for western areas either, where frosts would be a concern.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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