Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Wetter conditions with severe weather continuing in the northwestern Corn Belt but hot and dry conditions elsewhere, dry conditions in central Brazil, and a heat wave in Europe are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

PLANTING WINDOWS STILL OPEN FOR MUCH OF MIDWEST

A front is stalled out in the northwest corner of the Midwest for the rest of the week, offering chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms and severe weather. Heat and dryness to the east continue to promote better planting opportunities for the next couple of days. The system will slowly move eastward this weekend into Monday, cutting temperatures back and offering occasional showers. Showers should cool off the planting pace, but windows will not close entirely. Still, more showers will be possible in a few waves next week that will make planting more difficult.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Hot temperatures and occasional rain and thunderstorms will move through the Central and Southern Plains through the weekend. All areas will have chances for brief showers. Drought remains a mainstay in the southwest, which continues to have negative impacts for developing wheat. Showers this week will only have limited benefits, even if heavy, and come with risks for severe weather.

COLD AND WET IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A cold trough will keep temperatures cooler and showers around the Pacific Northwest through the weekend. Showers are unlikely to produce widespread issues for remaining planting or decrease drought in the region. Colder temperatures will limit wheat growth, however. More showers and cold air will be possible next week with another trough moving in.

SEVERE STORMS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system will move through the Northern Plains with scattered showers and severe storms going into Friday before drying out. A few isolated showers will be possible in the cooler air over the weekend. A couple of disturbances and systems will move through next week as well, making planting a difficult endeavor for most of the region.

SCATTERED SHOWERS COMING BACK TO DELTA

A frontal boundary off to the west of the Delta will eventually move through the region this weekend, bringing in some showers. Planting windows have been open all week but will find some difficulty this weekend. If the front gets held up in the region next week, we could see several more rounds of showers. Models still suggest that to be a possibility across the north.

SOIL MOISTURE CRITICAL IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Soil moisture continues to decline in central Brazil as corn continues to go through pollination and grain-fill with critical amounts of available moisture. Southern Brazil saw showers earlier this week with another round to come this weekend, which will be helpful for some of the crop and keep soils from getting too dry overall. We will have to watch temperatures behind a system next week, as there could be some localized frosts in some areas.

DRYNESS NOT YET CONCERNING FOR ARGENTINA WHEAT

Despite a system moving through Argentina Friday and Saturday, showers are likely to be limited to the far south wheat areas and northwestern corn and soybean areas. Showers are unlikely to add to the soil moisture profile for wheat development or hinder much of the corn and soybean harvest. Soil moisture is still adequate for wheat. Colder temperatures this weekend into next week could mean localized frosts again.

COOL AND SHOWERY IN BLACK SEA

Conditions are favorable for winter wheat development and are fair for corn planting in the Black Sea region. A couple of storm systems moving through this week should add to soil moisture in some areas but will miss others as well. Overall, conditions are fair.

HEAT WAVE BUILDING IN WESTERN EUROPE

More showers are needed across northern Europe as it has turned drier in recent weeks. Shower activity will come through occasionally through next week, but not as consistently as needed. Scattered showers may make it to France and Italy while missing others. A heat wave building into the continent will continue through much of next week, especially over western areas. That will stress those areas that are drier for both reproductive winter crops and developing spring crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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