Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Widespread precipitation this week across much of the United States and declining soil moisture in central Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention on Monday.

LIMITED PLANTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR MIDWEST

Scattered showers went through the Midwest during the weekend, but missed some areas, allowing soils to drain a little more. Planting progress has been slow this spring. Two more systems will bring more widespread rainfall through the region this week, with Minnesota possibly missing both systems. Planting windows continue to be short and brief. A system building in the Plains this weekend may move through the region next week.

WIDESPREAD RAIN IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through northern and eastern areas of the Southern Plains Friday, including widespread severe weather in Nebraska and Kansas and strong winds through much of the region. Thunderstorms developed in western areas on Sunday. While the rainfall was desperately needed, the severe weather that came with it was unfortunate. Showers have since expanded north and east through the region for Monday. Another system may bring similar rainfall to much of the region on Wednesday into Thursday. Drought areas have their best chance for precipitation in weeks, but drought is deep in this area and will take massive amounts of rain over a long time to get the region out. More showers may be possible during the weekend going into next week, which may also offer some limited benefits.

WET IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Scattered showers moved through the Pacific Northwest during the weekend and a couple more systems will move through this week and weekend with more widespread showers. Temperatures will waffle up and down during the next two weeks, which may cause some slower growth for wheat.

SOILS DRAINING IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A storm system brought widespread moderate to heavy precipitation to much of the Northern Plains over the weekend, but not across western North Dakota, giving that part of the region a chance to recover from recent heavy snow. A couple of systems will pass by to the south this week, leaving the region mostly dry. Warmer weather will move in by the weekend, allowing a limited chance at planting this week. A system moving into the West this weekend will bring several days of scattered showers back through the region, however.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR DELTA

A front brought pockets of moderate showers through the Delta this weekend. Two more systems will do something similar this week. Some areas that are too wet will stay wet, while other areas may get a break or needed precipitation. Overall though, planting progress is likely to be a little slower through this week. A system that develops in the Plains this weekend may move through next week.

SOIL MOISTURE DECLINING IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers fell over southern Brazil this weekend, but mostly in wheat areas instead of safrinha (second-crop) corn territory. Central Brazil continues to miss out on rainfall, which is leading to critical levels of soil moisture for corn that is going through pollination and grain-fill. A front across the south will move north through the region this week, but showers will largely dissolve as they move into central Brazil, as worries continue for the rest of the season.

DRYNESS NOT YET CONCERNING FOR ARGENTINA WHEAT

Scattered showers continued over far northern areas of Argentina this weekend while colder conditions built in across the south, producing some frosts. Showers will move north into Paraguay by Tuesday, with dryness continuing elsewhere. Soil moisture is improved for wheat planting and early development, but more will be needed before winter sets in. Precipitation is too late to offer any help for corn and soybeans as harvest continues to progress.

IMPROVED PLANTING WEATHER FOR BLACK SEA

Isolated showers moved through the Black Sea region during the weekend. While some isolated showers may move through this week, dryness is likely to be more widespread. Conditions are improved for corn planting. Soil moisture for wheat development is still rather good, but more would be preferred.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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