Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active pattern for the next week and declining soil moisture in central Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention on Friday.

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MIDWEST

Recent showers and colder weather in the Midwest are keeping soils wet in a lot of areas and limiting fieldwork. A system will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Two more systems will move through next week with more showers. Eastern areas may have found enough of a window to do some planting this week, though wet soils have hindered that goal. Overall below-normal temperatures in place will also keep corn planting and wheat development slower than average for most areas.

INCREASING RAIN FOR S. PLAINS NEXT WEEK

A system will bring scattered showers through the Central and Southern Plains Friday and Saturday. Those showers are most likely across Nebraska and eastern Kansas and thunderstorms are likely to be severe. Another couple of systems will move through the region next week. Models are suggesting potential for western areas to see some better precipitation, which may have some limited impact on soil moisture. Deficits continue to be very large and the light to moderate showers forecast will not eliminate drought.

COOL, WET IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Below-normal temperatures should remain the norm in the Pacific Northwest for the next week. Some showers will also move through at times, which may or may not produce some delays for wheat planting. The added moisture will be good for wheat development, though the lower temperatures will not.

DROUGHT REDUCTION, MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR N. PLAINS

Another storm system will move through the Northern Plains Friday through the weekend with scattered moderate to heavy showers which may include a little snow accumulation in the middle of the region. Snowfall amounts are not expected to be nearly what they have been with previous storm systems. The rains could resume flood concerns in eastern North Dakota. Low temperatures in place will continue into next week, keeping melting of the remaining snowpack slow and soils from warming quickly, limiting fieldwork and planting progress in the region.

PLANTING WINDOWS BRIEFLY OPEN FOR DELTA

Soils remain wet for a lot of the Delta, limiting fieldwork and planting. After a couple days of dryness that had planting windows open briefly, a system moves through this weekend and more showers will be possible with a couple more systems next week, making significant planting progress unlikely.

SOIL MOISTURE DECLINING IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Safrinha corn in central Brazil continues to see declining soil moisture well ahead of normal. The absence of showers will cause temperatures to increase, producing even more stress. Some showers may move through the region in the middle-to-end of next week, but would be spotty and not overly helpful. Southern areas will see waves of showers during the next week that should maintain good soil moisture for developing to pollinating corn and winter wheat planting and establishment.

DRYNESS NOT YET CONCERN FOR ARGENTINA WHEAT

Scattered showers are expected to continue across far northern Argentina going into the weekend. Showers at this point in the season will have limited positive effects for corn and soybeans while hampering the ongoing harvest. Although dry for the next week, recent soil moisture increases over the south will favor wheat as planting gets underway.

IMPROVED PLANTING WEATHER FOR BLACK SEA

Soil moisture is mostly favorable across the Black Sea region for developing wheat. Isolated showers will provide some added rainfall, but drier windows will help with corn planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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